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Drafting A Rb... Lynch not the best fit

#1 User is offline   MYENNY7 Icon

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 02:36 PM

I have read quite a few posts (and heard various anaylists) looking for the Jets to find a way to Draft Marshawn Lynch. My take is this: I subscribe to the DirecTv college football package and I find myself watching 2 conferences more than any. (Big Ten and Pac-Ten) The Big Ten because it is a physical, smash mouth conference, for the most part; and the Pac-Ten because I'm a night owl.

The feature running back from each conference is Lynch from Cal and Tony Hunt from Penn State. I have seen these two teams roughly the same amount of time this past season, and I must say that Tony Hunt is a much better fit for us.
Here's some numbers:

Lynch: Averaged roughly 15-17 carries a game
Hunt: 22-25 carries a game
Lynch: outrushed 3 times this year by a teammate (including the Bowl game)
Hunt: Led the Lions in rushing every game
Lynch: in an offensive built around throwing the ball (defenses looking to stop the pass)
Hunt: in a system built around running the football and playing defense (defense #1 priority: stop Hunt)
Lynch: common opponents- Tennessee:74 yrds rushing, Minnesota: 139 yrds rushing
Hunt: common opponents- Tennessee: 158 yrds rushing, Minnesota: 144 yrds rushing 3 TDs
Lynch: Pac-Ten feature Defense-USC 88 yrds rushing
Hunt: Feature Defenses-Ohio State 135 yrds rushing, Michigan 118 total yrds 1 TD
Lynch: Most games out west/ good weather
Hunt: Played in the east with many bad weather situations
They both catch the ball well, however pass protection definatley goes to Hunt.

Lynch is a player with good talent but really should have stayed in school another year.
Hunt is a senior captain who hands the ball to the official after big plays: humble and tough.

I'm not sure we should draft a running back in the 1st round, we have other holes, but this my opinion on RBs.
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#2 User is offline   NYJBlueHen Icon

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 02:45 PM

QUOTE (MYENNY7 @ Jan 26 2007, 03:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I have read quite a few posts (and heard various anaylists) looking for the Jets to find a way to Draft Marshawn Lynch. My take is this: I subscribe to the DirecTv college football package and I find myself watching 2 conferences more than any. (Big Ten and Pac-Ten) The Big Ten because it is a physical, smash mouth conference, for the most part; and the Pac-Ten because I'm a night owl.

The feature running back from each conference is Lynch from Cal and Tony Hunt from Penn State. I have seen these two teams roughly the same amount of time this past season, and I must say that Tony Hunt is a much better fit for us.
Here's some numbers:

Lynch: Averaged roughly 15-17 carries a game
Hunt: 22-25 carries a game
Lynch: outrushed 3 times this year by a teammate (including the Bowl game)
Hunt: Led the Lions in rushing every game
Lynch: in an offensive built around throwing the ball (defenses looking to stop the pass)
Hunt: in a system built around running the football and playing defense (defense #1 priority: stop Hunt)
Lynch: common opponents- Tennessee:74 yrds rushing, Minnesota: 139 yrds rushing
Hunt: common opponents- Tennessee: 158 yrds rushing, Minnesota: 144 yrds rushing 3 TDs
Lynch: Pac-Ten feature Defense-USC 88 yrds rushing
Hunt: Feature Defenses-Ohio State 135 yrds rushing, Michigan 118 total yrds 1 TD
Lynch: Most games out west/ good weather
Hunt: Played in the east with many bad weather situations
They both catch the ball well, however pass protection definatley goes to Hunt.

Lynch is a player with good talent but really should have stayed in school another year.
Hunt is a senior captain who hands the ball to the official after big plays: humble and tough.

I'm not sure we should draft a running back in the 1st round, we have other holes, but this my opinion on RBs.


Good insight, I haven't seen Hunt much, that certainly opens my eyes to him.
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#3 User is offline   VILMAmazing51 Icon

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 02:51 PM

Im from PA and I have to say this a great breakdown that really shows the value in both players. Great job w/ the research. Hunt is a monster....dont that he was the "feature" back in Big-10 with hart and pittman also in there, but he is a load. Another point to make about hunt is his size, if mangini wants a feature back maybe lynch is it....but if he likes a 2-back system I have to say hunt and leon would be NASTY.

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#4 User is offline   cmart=the best Icon

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 03:36 PM

I live in PA so i see some penn state games and some things i notice when you compare the 2 is that PSU has a much better O-line than CAL. Another thing i noticed but i dont know the stats for it is that Hunt doesnt seem to break too many tackles. When i watch Lynch he seems like a more dynamic back and I can see him doin very well in the NFL. Hunt seems very 1 demensional and not as dynamic as Lynch.

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#5 User is offline   jets0n Icon

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 04:41 PM

My personal preference for the next RB the Jets should take is a guy that has massive power and hurts defenses. That's when the 2 headed beast known as a RB rotation can really be effective. With the Jets, we already have a RB that I think can handle 20 carries a game and get 100+ yards on the ground alone. I'm sold HIGHLY on Leon being THE starting RB on the Jets. However, we still need that RB for when Leon's style isn't the speed at which we'll play the game.

That's why we need Michael Bush or Tony Hunt, but I like Bush's production better. He was really on pace again this season and the only game he played in was the opener in which he averaged 7.5 y/c and 3 TDs. He broke a 48 yard run that game, which was his first carry of the season. On his was to 128 yards rushing, he did all of that in 1 half of football. That's total domination. His long the season before was 73. His freshman year he broke an 81 yard run. He's got breakaway potential and he's a powerful guy at 6-3 250.

Interesting sidenote on Bush, he threw 6 TDs and 468 yards his senior highschool year against Brian Brohm who became his teammate. He also ran for 116 Yards and another TD. It's widely regarded as one of the best highschool football games ever played. He's also played as a CB, LB, DE, S, and WR. He's a football player! That's what Mangini wants.
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#6 User is offline   jhsensation10 Icon

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 04:57 PM

QUOTE (jets0n @ Jan 26 2007, 06:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
My personal preference for the next RB the Jets should take is a guy that has massive power and hurts defenses. That's when the 2 headed beast known as a RB rotation can really be effective. With the Jets, we already have a RB that I think can handle 20 carries a game and get 100+ yards on the ground alone. I'm sold HIGHLY on Leon being THE starting RB on the Jets. However, we still need that RB for when Leon's style isn't the speed at which we'll play the game.

That's why we need Michael Bush or Tony Hunt, but I like Bush's production better. He was really on pace again this season and the only game he played in was the opener in which he averaged 7.5 y/c and 3 TDs. He broke a 48 yard run that game, which was his first carry of the season. On his was to 128 yards rushing, he did all of that in 1 half of football. That's total domination. His long the season before was 73. His freshman year he broke an 81 yard run. He's got breakaway potential and he's a powerful guy at 6-3 250.

Interesting sidenote on Bush, he threw 6 TDs and 468 yards his senior highschool year against Brian Brohm who became his teammate. He also ran for 116 Yards and another TD. It's widely regarded as one of the best highschool football games ever played. He's also played as a CB, LB, DE, S, and WR. He's a football player! That's what Mangini wants.


totally agree with your bush analysis. like i said before, how many times does chad get us into the red zone and we settle for FGs?? it is because we do not have an effective running game and the other team knows chad has to try to throw for the TD. problem is we don't have tall receivers for a fade route and chad does not have the arm strength to thread the needle. so we need someone who can just pound it for 5 yards at a time, and with that threat, make chad's play action much more effective. i just have a feeling that bush will be the next shaun alexander, with a nose for the endzone.
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#7 User is offline   ManginiIsMyHero Icon

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 04:59 PM

I keep saying it. Picture Curtis Martin. What made him so great and what supposed strenghts he didn't have. That is Tony Hunt to a T.

Tony is humble and works hards. He doesn't break every tackle but he fights for every yard. He's a leader. He can catch and pass protect. He won't burn a team for 25+ yards but neither could Curtis.

He is the next Curtis Martin and the Jets would be very thankful to have him. As I also keep saying closer to draft time there will be videos of almost every player showing what they can do and I will post the Tony Hunt video I find as soon as I find it.
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#8 User is offline   jets0n Icon

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Posted 26 January 2007 - 05:02 PM

Yeah people forget this guy is a TD machine. He does nothing but get freaking TD's all day. Reminds me of Priest Holmes in that way. But the most amazing part about him is the fact that he runs a 4.5 at 250 lbs. That's scary.... I haven't seen enough video on him, if anyone has some good highlight stuff I'd like to see it. I couldn't find but one really horrible vid on YouTube but I'd like to see his running style a little bit more.
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Posted 26 January 2007 - 05:15 PM

I like Hunt also but the thing with Hunt is he's not going to be able to take it to the house. He does have everything you need for a back. Size,power,great feet,agility. He's Larry Johnson with out the speed. That's the only thing he's lacking.
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Posted 26 January 2007 - 08:44 PM

i love bush too but he's not going to fall past the ravens in the 1st......and even if he went earlier i wouldnt be suprised but seeing that we are probably going Defense in the 1st which i think is the right thing i would prefer tony hunt over anyone else........he's a 3rd round steal.....if this guy left after his junior year he would have been a first rounder......he's a pounder like mike bush only he'll be there later on
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#11 User is offline   HurricaneJet32 Icon

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Posted 27 January 2007 - 02:49 PM

QUOTE (MYENNY7 @ Jan 26 2007, 03:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I have read quite a few posts (and heard various anaylists) looking for the Jets to find a way to Draft Marshawn Lynch. My take is this: I subscribe to the DirecTv college football package and I find myself watching 2 conferences more than any. (Big Ten and Pac-Ten) The Big Ten because it is a physical, smash mouth conference, for the most part; and the Pac-Ten because I'm a night owl.

The feature running back from each conference is Lynch from Cal and Tony Hunt from Penn State. I have seen these two teams roughly the same amount of time this past season, and I must say that Tony Hunt is a much better fit for us.
Here's some numbers:

Lynch: Averaged roughly 15-17 carries a game
Hunt: 22-25 carries a game
Lynch: outrushed 3 times this year by a teammate (including the Bowl game)
Hunt: Led the Lions in rushing every game
Lynch: in an offensive built around throwing the ball (defenses looking to stop the pass)
Hunt: in a system built around running the football and playing defense (defense #1 priority: stop Hunt)
Lynch: common opponents- Tennessee:74 yrds rushing, Minnesota: 139 yrds rushing
Hunt: common opponents- Tennessee: 158 yrds rushing, Minnesota: 144 yrds rushing 3 TDs
Lynch: Pac-Ten feature Defense-USC 88 yrds rushing
Hunt: Feature Defenses-Ohio State 135 yrds rushing, Michigan 118 total yrds 1 TD
Lynch: Most games out west/ good weather
Hunt: Played in the east with many bad weather situations
They both catch the ball well, however pass protection definatley goes to Hunt.

Lynch is a player with good talent but really should have stayed in school another year.
Hunt is a senior captain who hands the ball to the official after big plays: humble and tough.

I'm not sure we should draft a running back in the 1st round, we have other holes, but this my opinion on RBs.


OK...everyone knows I'm a huge Marshawn Lynch fan so here is my rebuttle...

"Lynch: Averaged roughly 15-17 carries a game
Hunt: 22-25 carries a game"


I see this as a good thing. As you said, it's a passing offense...so it has saved Lynch's legs...the boy is still fresh. Guys like Tony Hunt and Adrian Peterson already have a ton of mileage on their tires.

"Lynch: outrushed 3 times this year by a teammate (including the Bowl game)
Hunt: Led the Lions in rushing every game"


He was injured and taken out of atleast one of those that I can remember. And the bowl game he got outrushed because his backup pulled out huge gains at the end of the game when it was already over...the final score was 45-10 due in large part to Lynch's 2 TD's. Also, in the bowl game Lynch ran for 111 yards, his backup Forsett(who's a very good back in his own right) ran for 124, so it wasn't that big of a margin.

"Lynch: in an offensive built around throwing the ball (defenses looking to stop the pass)
Hunt: in a system built around running the football and playing defense (defense #1 priority: stop Hunt)"


Penn State - Levi Brown...Cal - Nobody. Now the Cal line is by no means bad...but the Penn State line is very good...especially at run blocking. Plus, you can't fault Lynch for not getting the touches, everytime he touched it he got yards.

Marshawn Lynch = 7.1 Career Yards Per Carry

Tony Hunt = 4.7 Career Yards Per Carry

It should be noted Hunt's YPC went generally up during his career...while Lynch's went generally down...but never below 6.1 YPC.


"Lynch: common opponents- Tennessee:74 yrds rushing, Minnesota: 139 yrds rushing
Hunt: common opponents- Tennessee: 158 yrds rushing, Minnesota: 144 yrds rushing 3 TDs"


Tennessee
- Lynch was only given 12 carries...which equals out to 6.2 YPC...coaches fault for not feeding him the ball. Tack on 5 receptions for 22 yards. Also 2 KO returns for 45 yards.

- Hunt was given 31 freaking carries, talk about mileage, for 158 yards...good for 5.1 YPC. Hunt had one reception for 7 yards.

Minnesota
- Lynch was given 27 carries for 139 yards...a 5.1 YPC average...and 2 rushing TD's. Tack on 3 KO returns for 56 yards.

- Hunt was again, pounded with 31 carries for 144 yards. Only a 4.6 YPC average. He had 2 rushing and 1 recieving TD.

Lynch had the better YPC against both teams...


"Lynch: Pac-Ten feature Defense-USC 88 yrds rushing
Hunt: Feature Defenses-Ohio State 135 yrds rushing, Michigan 118 total yrds 1 TD"


Big Ten defenses? You kidding me? Ohio State got busted in the mouth by Florida in the championship game...and Michigan got spanked by USC in their bowl game. The Pac 10 may not have great defenses...but neither does the Big Ten. However, USC's defense was amazing this year...

"They both catch the ball well, however pass protection definatley goes to Hunt."

Tony Hunt does not catch well...period. Lynch had 34 receptions this year...Hunt only posted 27. And Hunt basically catches screens and dump-offs. Lynch is great reciever downfield...as well as on the screens and dump-offs...similiar to Reggie Bush. I'll give you Hunt has better pass protection...but Lynch isn't far off.

"Lynch is a player with good talent but really should have stayed in school another year.
Hunt is a senior captain who hands the ball to the official after big plays: humble and tough."


I'm not going to deny that Hunt is a good guy...because he is...but you can't say that as if Lynch isn't humble and a good teamate either...because he is. Lynch always just hands the ball off after a big play or TD...and is a well liked and respected guy amongst both teammates and coaches.


It also comes down to mileage for me...Hunt has been beaten into submission at Penn State...whereas Lynch still has fresh legs but has also proven he can carry the load.

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#12 User is offline   MYENNY7 Icon

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Posted 27 January 2007 - 10:44 PM

Very good points Hurricane.
I'll still take Tony Hunt.

Joe Paterno declaired Tony as the best all around back he ever coached. That's huge coming from JoePa.
Jon Gruden nicknamed Hunt "The Anvil", and said he loves the way he plays the game.
Also, earlier today on the NFL network they talked about Lynch and said that the only reason he is being considered in the top 2 rounds is for his speed, and that he shared the workload because he has a tendency to take plays off. I'm not sure I agree with that, but that's what's being said. They feel Lynch will end up with Green Bay.

Here's where I must disagree.
Penn State had Levi Brown...that's it, their line for the most part was below average. PSU's QB Morelli always had pressure in his face, Longshore on the other hand had all day long to throw the ball. Watch Lynch's highlights he is running through massive holes, now look at Hunt's, it's mainly squeezing off taking and breaking arm tackles. Hunt is a tremendious pass cather, only having 27 catches isn't his fault, he doesn't throw the ball to himself. Also, I love the fact that Hunt proved he could handle the load of the carries without injury, Lynch got banged up this year with far few carries.
Lynch's game reminds me much of Leon's, and well...we have Leon.

Tony Hunt-Senoir Bowl MVP
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#13 User is offline   HurricaneJet32 Icon

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Posted 27 January 2007 - 11:57 PM

QUOTE (MYENNY7 @ Jan 27 2007, 11:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Very good points Hurricane.
I'll still take Tony Hunt.

Joe Paterno declaired Tony as the best all around back he ever coached. That's huge coming from JoePa.
Jon Gruden nicknamed Hunt "The Anvil", and said he loves the way he plays the game.
Also, earlier today on the NFL network they talked about Lynch and said that the only reason he is being considered in the top 2 rounds is for his speed, and that he shared the workload because he has a tendency to take plays off. I'm not sure I agree with that, but that's what's being said. They feel Lynch will end up with Green Bay.

Here's where I must disagree.
Penn State had Levi Brown...that's it, their line for the most part was below average. PSU's QB Morelli always had pressure in his face, Longshore on the other hand had all day long to throw the ball. Watch Lynch's highlights he is running through massive holes, now look at Hunt's, it's mainly squeezing off taking and breaking arm tackles. Hunt is a tremendious pass cather, only having 27 catches isn't his fault, he doesn't throw the ball to himself. Also, I love the fact that Hunt proved he could handle the load of the carries without injury, Lynch got banged up this year with far few carries.
Lynch's game reminds me much of Leon's, and well...we have Leon.

Tony Hunt-Senoir Bowl MVP


I can't deny Tony Hunt is a good player...but to me he doesn't have 3 things I feel are necessary in a back...

- Change of Direction

- Ability to Make People Miss in the Open Field

- Misreads Blocks Occasionally

He's basically an upgrade over Cedric Houston...same type of runner in my opinion. So if you think a combination of Tony Hunt and Leon Washington can do the trick...than sure...Tony Hunt is a great pick. However, I think you need a feature, a guy who can handle all three downs. That's just my personal opinion. I would much rather have a back who can run inside and out...catch short and long passes...juke an opponent or just plain run over him. That's my kind of back...and that is more Marshawn Lynch than Tony Hunt.

And I don't know about those who say Marshawn is only being considered because of his speed...the guy isn't even that fast. He's quick and agile as hell...but not a burner. He only runs a 4.5...but it's the fact that he combines GOOD speed with GOOD power and GOOD everything. He isn't a master of anything...but he is good at everything...which makes him so rare.

Also...about injuries...this is the first year Marshawn had injuries...and he played through them. I believe they were ankle sprains that would have sidelined most...which led to his backup getting more carries and limiting Lynch's production. Every player has injuries...it's just a matter of whether you can play through them.
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#14 User is offline   MYENNY7 Icon

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Posted 28 January 2007 - 01:09 PM

This is the reason I like this site so much.
People can have really good conversations about thier point of view.

I guess we just have different tastes in this matter. Now, like I mentioned earlier I watched both of these teams this year. I watched Cal 8 times and Penn State 7 times. I like Cal and I like Lynch. However, I like Tony a little better. I watched him do all of the things that you said he couldn't do. I also watched him take over games in the fourth quarter with 8 guys in the box trying to stop him and couldn't. I feel Leon can be a feature back in the NFL and he needs a hammer type back to compliment him.

Tony is a huge upgrade over Houston and Barlow drawing comparisons to Curtis Martin and Cory Dillion. Again, I don't think we should be drafting a RB in the first round, but I feel he would be a great second round value.
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#15 User is offline   RetireChrebet Icon

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Posted 28 January 2007 - 01:55 PM

QUOTE (HurricaneJet32 @ Jan 27 2007, 03:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
OK...everyone knows I'm a huge Marshawn Lynch fan so here is my rebuttle...

"Lynch: Averaged roughly 15-17 carries a game
Hunt: 22-25 carries a game"


I see this as a good thing. As you said, it's a passing offense...so it has saved Lynch's legs...the boy is still fresh. Guys like Tony Hunt and Adrian Peterson already have a ton of mileage on their tires.

"Lynch: outrushed 3 times this year by a teammate (including the Bowl game)
Hunt: Led the Lions in rushing every game"


He was injured and taken out of atleast one of those that I can remember. And the bowl game he got outrushed because his backup pulled out huge gains at the end of the game when it was already over...the final score was 45-10 due in large part to Lynch's 2 TD's. Also, in the bowl game Lynch ran for 111 yards, his backup Forsett(who's a very good back in his own right) ran for 124, so it wasn't that big of a margin.

"Lynch: in an offensive built around throwing the ball (defenses looking to stop the pass)
Hunt: in a system built around running the football and playing defense (defense #1 priority: stop Hunt)"


Penn State - Levi Brown...Cal - Nobody. Now the Cal line is by no means bad...but the Penn State line is very good...especially at run blocking. Plus, you can't fault Lynch for not getting the touches, everytime he touched it he got yards.

Marshawn Lynch = 7.1 Career Yards Per Carry

Tony Hunt = 4.7 Career Yards Per Carry

It should be noted Hunt's YPC went generally up during his career...while Lynch's went generally down...but never below 6.1 YPC.


"Lynch: common opponents- Tennessee:74 yrds rushing, Minnesota: 139 yrds rushing
Hunt: common opponents- Tennessee: 158 yrds rushing, Minnesota: 144 yrds rushing 3 TDs"


Tennessee
- Lynch was only given 12 carries...which equals out to 6.2 YPC...coaches fault for not feeding him the ball. Tack on 5 receptions for 22 yards. Also 2 KO returns for 45 yards.

- Hunt was given 31 freaking carries, talk about mileage, for 158 yards...good for 5.1 YPC. Hunt had one reception for 7 yards.

Minnesota
- Lynch was given 27 carries for 139 yards...a 5.1 YPC average...and 2 rushing TD's. Tack on 3 KO returns for 56 yards.

- Hunt was again, pounded with 31 carries for 144 yards. Only a 4.6 YPC average. He had 2 rushing and 1 recieving TD.

Lynch had the better YPC against both teams...


"Lynch: Pac-Ten feature Defense-USC 88 yrds rushing
Hunt: Feature Defenses-Ohio State 135 yrds rushing, Michigan 118 total yrds 1 TD"


Big Ten defenses? You kidding me? Ohio State got busted in the mouth by Florida in the championship game...and Michigan got spanked by USC in their bowl game. The Pac 10 may not have great defenses...but neither does the Big Ten. However, USC's defense was amazing this year...

"They both catch the ball well, however pass protection definatley goes to Hunt."

Tony Hunt does not catch well...period. Lynch had 34 receptions this year...Hunt only posted 27. And Hunt basically catches screens and dump-offs. Lynch is great reciever downfield...as well as on the screens and dump-offs...similiar to Reggie Bush. I'll give you Hunt has better pass protection...but Lynch isn't far off.

"Lynch is a player with good talent but really should have stayed in school another year.
Hunt is a senior captain who hands the ball to the official after big plays: humble and tough."


I'm not going to deny that Hunt is a good guy...because he is...but you can't say that as if Lynch isn't humble and a good teamate either...because he is. Lynch always just hands the ball off after a big play or TD...and is a well liked and respected guy amongst both teammates and coaches.


It also comes down to mileage for me...Hunt has been beaten into submission at Penn State...whereas Lynch still has fresh legs but has also proven he can carry the load.


thats true dedication to the site....wish i had time like that

QUOTE (RetireChrebet @ Jan 28 2007, 02:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
thats true dedication to the site....wish i had time like that


besides that we have to trade up for AP or wait for bush....lynch nor hunt will play a major role in the league
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#16 User is offline   HurricaneJet32 Icon

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Posted 28 January 2007 - 05:52 PM

QUOTE (RetireChrebet @ Jan 28 2007, 02:30 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
thats true dedication to the site....wish i had time like that



Haha...that literally took me two days. I started it...got a few lines in and than had to leave. Came back the next day...wrote a few more line...and had to leave. Finally came back that late afternoon...and finished it.
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