[kobeskool]

May 8, 2007) -- The 2007 NFL Draft is history and about half of the 32 teams have had their post-draft minicamp. There are great expectations about the young players selected, and while it is time for a little dreaming about what might be down the road, I thought we should look back in order to foresee the future. Wide receiver was a very popular position in the first round this year, so let's start there.

Six wide receivers were selected in the first round, and from the Lions taking the "best player in the draft" in Calvin Johnson to Miami picking the slightly injured Ted Ginn, every team felt it got a great player. Dwayne Bowe in Kansas City, Robert Meachem in New Orleans, Craig Davis in San Diego and Anthony Gonzalez in Indianapolis are all creating a buzz, but history says they have a rough road ahead of them.

The Dolphins hope Ted Ginn will live up to his draft position.
The Dolphins hope Ted Ginn will live up to his draft position.
From 2000 to 2006, there were 31 wide receivers selected in the first round and history says plenty about what to believe is going to happen to the Class of 2007. The first reality is that the receivers have precious few years to deliver or they will be gone. They may get another chance or two down the road, but the team that drafted them will move on quickly if they struggle. Keep in mind that the six teams this year will spend close to $50 million on these players, but is it money well spent? What are the chances of seeing a return on their investment?

From 2003 back to 2000, only three of the 17 receivers drafted in the first round are still with the team that drafted them. Andre Johnson (Houston), Bryant Johnson (Arizona) and Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis) still collect a paycheck from the team that had so many wonderful things to say about them in the days following their selection.

Here is the list of first-round wide receivers from 2000-2005 that are no longer with the team that drafted them. It's not a pretty group and provides a sobering reality check about what may lay ahead for the Class of 2007. Some are still playing and a few are starting, but not where they were selected.
2000: Peter Warrick, Travis Taylor, Sylvester Morris, R.J. Soward, Plaxico Burress
2001: David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Freddie Mitchell, Santana Moss
2002: Donte' Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, Javon Walker
2003: Charles Rogers
2004: Rashaun Woods
2005: Mike Williams

This is a big year for a number of receivers from 2004 and 2005 who really have to take a big jump or they will be the next wave of victims. The teams are already bringing in competition for them. Troy Williamson struggles to catch the ball in Minnesota, so the Vikings selected Sidney Rice in the second round. Roddy White and Michael Jenkins have a new coach with the Falcons, who signed Joe Horn and drafted Laurent Robinson in the third round.

I give the Lions a lot of credit for not looking back at the Mike Williams and Charles Rogers selections and taking Calvin Johnson. If they're right about Johnson and he's a great player, they are set for a long time. As bad as the picture looks for wide receivers, the first round of the 2000-2006 draft's also produced Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne. Recent history says there is a 13 percent chance of drafting a great player at the wide receiver position in the first round and having him on your roster. But history also says there's a 26 percent chance a first-round wide receiver will be out of football in the next six years.

Finally, it takes time to train a wide receiver. Route running needs to be developed and learning to release off the line versus press coverage, recognizing coverages, and the ability to catch the ball all take time. But do teams have the time? There's no chance all six teams that took a wide receiver this year will wait for their prize pupil to make it on their roster. If they do shine in the next few years, they will want more money than most teams are willing to spend to keep them. Javon Walker got out of Green Bay, Plaxico Burress bolted from Pittsburgh and Santana Moss was traded from the Jets.

Here's the survival rate over the past six years for first-round receivers that are still with the team that drafted them.
2006: 100 percent (1 of 1)
2005: 83 percent (5 of 6)
2004: 86 percent (6 of 7)
2003: 66 percent (2 of 3)
2002: 0 percent (0 of 3)
2001: 17 percent (1 of 6)
2000: 0 percent (0 of 5)



Team News
Related
• Brandt: Post-2007 draft tidbits

[JIG-SAW]

Santana Moss, Javon Walker, and Plaxico Burress are guys who actually lived up to that 1st round tag....stallworth would be okay if he was a 3rd rounder....ashlie lelie and travis taylor are bumbs.....the rest of those guys are hitting that classified section hard