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santana Icon : (18 May 2016 - 10:27 PM) I'm excited for geno smith. His jaw will survive the off season.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (19 May 2016 - 06:26 PM) not true, never know who might punch him
MikeGangGree... Icon : (21 May 2016 - 05:38 PM) f*** Geno smith
MikeGangGree... Icon : (21 May 2016 - 05:39 PM) J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!
mgjetman Icon : (23 May 2016 - 02:01 PM) Geno really needs to go away. Double f**k Geno.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (23 May 2016 - 02:21 PM) Fitzpatrick said he wants to play for the jets and that he won't retire
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (23 May 2016 - 06:50 PM) This street thug Darron Lee hasn't signed yet
MikeGangGree... Icon : (25 May 2016 - 05:32 PM) that damn dirty street thug
Jetsfan115 Icon : (31 May 2016 - 10:28 AM) jets offered fitz 3 years 24 million dollar deal. 12 million for 2016 and 6 million each for 2017 and 2018. fitz is unhappy with the 2017 and 2018 number
MikeGangGree... Icon : (01 June 2016 - 01:45 PM) Street thug
MikeGangGree... Icon : (01 June 2016 - 01:47 PM) I really don't like Devin Smith he cost us 2 games last season with his hands of stone
Jetsfan115 Icon : (01 June 2016 - 04:27 PM) he's a rookie
Jetsfan115 Icon : (01 June 2016 - 04:27 PM) i'm more concerned we really don't have a slot WR. all of our guys are outside guys
Jetsfan115 Icon : (01 June 2016 - 04:27 PM) i wonder if amaro is gonna be a big slit guy and blocker for us
Jetsfan115 Icon : (01 June 2016 - 04:27 PM) slot
MikeGangGree... Icon : (01 June 2016 - 09:22 PM) Sources told NY daily news.Fitzpatrick is about to sign 1 year deal
MikeGangGree... Icon : (01 June 2016 - 10:06 PM) We didn't have a slot WR last year also. I do Amaro steps up I really do like him
MikeGangGree... Icon : (02 June 2016 - 09:46 AM) Ok so the jets won't take the deal. My question is why?? 1 year 12 million when they are already offering him 12 million in his first year
Jetsfan115 Icon : (02 June 2016 - 01:24 PM) 2 reasons, 1st off for salary cap relief this year. we have no cap room this year but plenty next year. a multi year deal and backload the contract and 2, why pay a guy 12 mil for 1 year with no guarentee and go thorugh this again
Jetsfan115 Icon : (02 June 2016 - 01:24 PM) fitz said he'd take a 1 year deal but jets don't want that
Jetsfan115 Icon : (02 June 2016 - 01:25 PM) they should offer him a 3 years for 30 mil. 12 this year (half in the signing bonus for cap relief) 10 mil next year and 8 mil the 3rd year. 1st 2 years guarenteed (22 mil)
RetireChrebet Icon : (03 June 2016 - 03:37 AM) You know your fucked when the biggest offseason story is can we convince a journeyman QB whom singlehandedly threw us out of the playoffs last year to sign a deal worth way more than his actual value!
MikeGangGree... Icon : (03 June 2016 - 09:59 AM) Ok jets brothers I need fantasy football help. Who should I keep in my keepers league. We have to decide by July
MikeGangGree... Icon : (03 June 2016 - 10:00 AM) Should I keep Cam Gurley or Bell?
MikeGangGree... Icon : (03 June 2016 - 10:01 AM) Cam had a monster year last year and in our league it's 6 points per PassTd and cam is getting his best WR back.
MikeGangGree... Icon : (03 June 2016 - 10:01 AM) Gurley was a monster last year as a rookie
MikeGangGree... Icon : (03 June 2016 - 10:03 AM) Bell missed most of the year with a injury but it's also a PPR league. In only 6 games last year he =100 points
MikeGangGree... Icon : (03 June 2016 - 10:04 AM) Cam also had 45 total TDs last year
Jetsfan115 Icon : (03 June 2016 - 10:50 AM) I'd keep bell
Jetsfan115 Icon : (03 June 2016 - 10:50 AM) there are maybe like 5 #1 fantasy RBs at best and you need to start at least 2
Jetsfan115 Icon : (03 June 2016 - 10:50 AM) QBs are easier to find. I had cam in 2 leagues and drafted him way late. RBs are impossible to find late
MikeGangGree... Icon : (04 June 2016 - 07:53 PM) FIRE FITZPATRICK
MikeGangGree... Icon : (04 June 2016 - 07:53 PM) That Damn dirty street thug
MikeGangGree... Icon : (05 June 2016 - 09:43 PM) In other news the NBA finals is like A NFL team Playing a college football team.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (06 June 2016 - 11:23 AM) line is in. jets are favorites for 5 games, pick for 2, and underdog for 9
MikeGangGree... Icon : (08 June 2016 - 04:56 PM) We play better as a underdog
santana Icon : (12 June 2016 - 03:54 PM) JETS JETS JETS
santana Icon : (13 June 2016 - 09:28 AM) Update on the #Jets situation with Ryan Fitzpatrick: Nothing. … Just nothing. Doesn't seem like things will change heading into minicamp.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (13 June 2016 - 10:39 AM) yeah every day i check for an update and every day, nothing
vjdbbq Icon : (14 June 2016 - 05:43 AM) Where's Rob and his ass ?
Mario Icon : (20 June 2016 - 06:21 PM) Any Jets fan in the Kansas city, Missouri area, that will be going to the game on the 25th of September?
vjdbbq Icon : (22 June 2016 - 07:29 AM) No Mario ; you will be there alone .
MikeGangGree... Icon : (25 June 2016 - 07:15 PM) FIRE FITZPATRICK
MikeGangGree... Icon : (Yesterday, 12:00 PM) Sheldon Richardson suspended for 1 game for violating league substance abuse policy
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Revis Value To The Jets?

#1 User is offline   Jetsfan115 Icon

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 10:26 AM

Q.

How valuable (in wins, and therefore is dollars) is Darelle Revis?

The salary average and variance varies by position. So too does the impact on the game. Which positions are overpaid and underpaid relative to the average or variance?

How well can you isolate the play of any particular player (e.g., the RB) from that of his teammates (e.g., the O-line)? Who contributes more to a 2000-yard season, the RB or the line? — Erik
A.

We’re nowhere near the point of valuing a player as being worth a number of wins, because we’re light-years away from quantifying all the things a player does. I doubt we’ll ever have a reliable “wins” metric because there are too many interactions between positions that we can’t account for in football. Take a quarterback, for example: even if we were to develop a measure of performance that stripped out the effects of his receivers and offensive line and placed his passing performance in a perfect, league-average context, we’d have to account for how he read defenses and called audibles at the line, how effective he was in setting up defenses on the play-fake, whether he had any impact on the running game versus an average quarterback … it’s not a realistic goal.

By the statistics we do have, though, Darrelle Revis was quite the cornerback in 2009. Our Game Charting Project at Football Outsiders uses a flotilla of volunteers to track a variety of things that aren’t contained in the official NFL play-by-play, like how many blitzers there were on a given pass play, whether there was play-action, or whether a defender rushed the quarterback into a throw. For pass plays, we use the angles provided on TV broadcasts to guesstimate who the receiver in coverage was. (For plays where there’s a blown coverage, our charters can list that the catch came in a “Hole in Zone”; or with clear double coverage, they can list more than one defender.) It’s an inexact science, since it’s difficult to diagnose certain coverage schemes from that camera angle, but it’s a big step in the right direction for analyzing the play of defensive backs.

Two of the primary stats we track for cornerbacks are Yards per Attempt (YPA) and Success Rate. YPA is, very simply, the number of yards a receiver gave up divided by the number of times he was in coverage. Success Rate captures the percentage of the time that the offense threw a pass against a particular defender and gained 45 percent of the needed yards for a new set of downs on first down, 60 percent of the needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of the needed yards on third or fourth down. Completions that don’t meet these standards, incompletions, or interceptions are considered to be failures.

Darrelle Revis paced all starting cornerbacks in both YPA and Success Rate in 2009, and it wasn’t particularly close. His YPA was 2.9 standard deviations above the average performance by a qualifying cornerback, while his Success Rate was 3.0 standard deviations above that average corner.

To try and place that in context with more traditional statistics, I noted that Revis was thrown at 96 times, which was the fifth-most targets of any corner in the league. I split the difference between those two Z-scores, suggesting that Revis was playing at a level 2.95 standard deviations above the average starting corner, and then applied that level of performance on a per-play basis to those players that ranked fifth in the league in usage at their particular category.

The results were staggering. Peyton Manning threw the fifth-most passes of any quarterback in the league. He actually threw for 4,640 yards. If he was playing at a level 2.95 standard deviations above the mean, like Revis was, he would have thrown for 5,532 yards — that would be an NFL record. Maurice Jones-Drew was the running back with the fifth-most carries in the league. While he ran for 1,391 yards, a Revis-style performance would have seen him hit exactly 2,000 yards. Brandon Marshall picked up 1,127 receiving yards while finishing fifth in the league in catches; had he been 2.95 standard deviations above the mean on a per-play basis, he would’ve picked up 1,922 receiving yards, which would also have been a league record.

Placing a value on that sort of performance is another topic altogether, but I think it’s pretty clear that Darrelle Revis spent his 2009 season playing at a truly remarkable level.
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Posted 23 August 2010 - 02:52 PM

Totally necessary but boring :)
21ST CENTURY NEW YORK STATE OF MIND ."REST IN PEACE NIGHT OWL TOM"Use Caution when reading my comments>.Posted Image
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