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JETS SUPER BOWL THIS WEEKEND
Chaos Icon : (15 December 2014 - 11:33 AM) If the Jets can't land Mariota or Winston, they're going to have to draft someone. Why not a potential #1 WR?
santana Icon : (15 December 2014 - 11:37 AM) Get cooper trade for cutler
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (15 December 2014 - 12:19 PM) We won't get cooper, not every team needs a qb in front of us
Jetsman05 Icon : (15 December 2014 - 12:27 PM) Lol cutler??
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (15 December 2014 - 12:28 PM) Maybe Winston slips as bit
santana Icon : (15 December 2014 - 12:31 PM) Lol <insert name here>??
santana Icon : (15 December 2014 - 12:32 PM) Lol milber??
Jetsman05 Icon : (15 December 2014 - 12:35 PM) What is a milber
santana Icon : (15 December 2014 - 12:36 PM) milber is love milber is life
santana Icon : (15 December 2014 - 07:25 PM) Espn trashing saints defense like geno is playing on it
MikeGangGree... Icon : (15 December 2014 - 11:26 PM) pssssst Santana........MGG FOR MOD IN 15
santana Icon : (15 December 2014 - 11:37 PM) This isn't congress
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MikeGangGree... Icon : (15 December 2014 - 11:42 PM) YES
MikeGangGree... Icon : (15 December 2014 - 11:42 PM) YES
MikeGangGree... Icon : (15 December 2014 - 11:42 PM) YES
MikeGangGree... Icon : (15 December 2014 - 11:42 PM) YES
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 12:49 PM) so do we beat the pats or just let them get the easy win
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 01:57 PM) At this point I am all about ruining their chance for home field.
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Yesterday, 02:15 PM) FIRE IDZIK
MikeGangGree... Icon : (Yesterday, 02:24 PM) O we will win
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azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 03:25 PM) You know Rex will dial up some crazy packages for Brady. He probably has that D-line all riled up already.
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 03:44 PM) Riled up to get Fired up
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 04:19 PM) Connor Cook from MI State is projected to go in the middle of the first round.
Mr_Jet Icon : (Yesterday, 04:48 PM) Cook is not ready for the NFL.
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 04:50 PM) Lol cook??
Mr_Jet Icon : (Yesterday, 04:54 PM) I think very highly of Connor Cook. But if he is projected to go in the first round of the 2015 draft, this is going to be a very weak draft.
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Yesterday, 05:02 PM) Connor Cook is going back to school..
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 05:52 PM) Lol school??
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 06:31 PM) I don't know anything about him but he was projected by two different mock drafts to go to the Texans
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 08:20 PM) Woody Johnson favorited a tweet about firing Idzik lol
jetfan4life12 Icon : (Today, 02:15 AM) woody better fire that ass clown if he wants fans to attend games next season. He messed the whole thing up by hiring a GM without letting him choose the coach. He likely was told no by the top 20 candidates and stuck himself with is dick
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Today, 09:18 AM) yup, I don't trust Idzik to make good use of our top draft pick or sign quality FAs. Or hire our next HC
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Today, 09:18 AM) I want a new GM and HC
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Today, 09:54 AM) Should I go Vincent Jackson or Jarvis Landry as my WR3?
Jetsfan115 Icon : (Today, 11:13 AM) i'd go landry
Jetsman05 Icon : (Today, 11:40 AM) The opposite of what Mr Jet thinks about it.
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MikeGangGree... Icon : (Today, 02:13 PM) 'Fire Idzik' banner returns for Jets
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Revis Value To The Jets?

#1 User is offline   Jetsfan115 Icon

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 10:26 AM

Q.

How valuable (in wins, and therefore is dollars) is Darelle Revis?

The salary average and variance varies by position. So too does the impact on the game. Which positions are overpaid and underpaid relative to the average or variance?

How well can you isolate the play of any particular player (e.g., the RB) from that of his teammates (e.g., the O-line)? Who contributes more to a 2000-yard season, the RB or the line? — Erik
A.

We’re nowhere near the point of valuing a player as being worth a number of wins, because we’re light-years away from quantifying all the things a player does. I doubt we’ll ever have a reliable “wins” metric because there are too many interactions between positions that we can’t account for in football. Take a quarterback, for example: even if we were to develop a measure of performance that stripped out the effects of his receivers and offensive line and placed his passing performance in a perfect, league-average context, we’d have to account for how he read defenses and called audibles at the line, how effective he was in setting up defenses on the play-fake, whether he had any impact on the running game versus an average quarterback … it’s not a realistic goal.

By the statistics we do have, though, Darrelle Revis was quite the cornerback in 2009. Our Game Charting Project at Football Outsiders uses a flotilla of volunteers to track a variety of things that aren’t contained in the official NFL play-by-play, like how many blitzers there were on a given pass play, whether there was play-action, or whether a defender rushed the quarterback into a throw. For pass plays, we use the angles provided on TV broadcasts to guesstimate who the receiver in coverage was. (For plays where there’s a blown coverage, our charters can list that the catch came in a “Hole in Zone”; or with clear double coverage, they can list more than one defender.) It’s an inexact science, since it’s difficult to diagnose certain coverage schemes from that camera angle, but it’s a big step in the right direction for analyzing the play of defensive backs.

Two of the primary stats we track for cornerbacks are Yards per Attempt (YPA) and Success Rate. YPA is, very simply, the number of yards a receiver gave up divided by the number of times he was in coverage. Success Rate captures the percentage of the time that the offense threw a pass against a particular defender and gained 45 percent of the needed yards for a new set of downs on first down, 60 percent of the needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of the needed yards on third or fourth down. Completions that don’t meet these standards, incompletions, or interceptions are considered to be failures.

Darrelle Revis paced all starting cornerbacks in both YPA and Success Rate in 2009, and it wasn’t particularly close. His YPA was 2.9 standard deviations above the average performance by a qualifying cornerback, while his Success Rate was 3.0 standard deviations above that average corner.

To try and place that in context with more traditional statistics, I noted that Revis was thrown at 96 times, which was the fifth-most targets of any corner in the league. I split the difference between those two Z-scores, suggesting that Revis was playing at a level 2.95 standard deviations above the average starting corner, and then applied that level of performance on a per-play basis to those players that ranked fifth in the league in usage at their particular category.

The results were staggering. Peyton Manning threw the fifth-most passes of any quarterback in the league. He actually threw for 4,640 yards. If he was playing at a level 2.95 standard deviations above the mean, like Revis was, he would have thrown for 5,532 yards — that would be an NFL record. Maurice Jones-Drew was the running back with the fifth-most carries in the league. While he ran for 1,391 yards, a Revis-style performance would have seen him hit exactly 2,000 yards. Brandon Marshall picked up 1,127 receiving yards while finishing fifth in the league in catches; had he been 2.95 standard deviations above the mean on a per-play basis, he would’ve picked up 1,922 receiving yards, which would also have been a league record.

Placing a value on that sort of performance is another topic altogether, but I think it’s pretty clear that Darrelle Revis spent his 2009 season playing at a truly remarkable level.
Get it done MT
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#2 User is offline   gmany3k Icon

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 02:52 PM

Totally necessary but boring :)
21ST CENTURY NEW YORK STATE OF MIND ."REST IN PEACE NIGHT OWL TOM"Use Caution when reading my comments>.Posted Image
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