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The long off season looms
S-Dubb Icon : (29 January 2016 - 10:22 AM) long time no chat, Ya boy has returned from the depths. Good to see everyone alive and well. Another season down the drain... what else is new? Fitz coming back next yr means we wont be going to the superbowl. We seriously need to land a QB. I hope Petty is the future and Im still quietly waiting for Geno to show up. IF they retain him it would speak volumes
Mr_Jet Icon : (29 January 2016 - 11:23 AM) I'm done with Geno. Never really expected much from him from the beginning. So I'm also looking for Petty to be the future.
vjdbbq Icon : (29 January 2016 - 04:33 PM) GENO SUCKS MONKEY DICK
MikeGangGree... Icon : (29 January 2016 - 07:16 PM) S-Dubb??.Who's that guy?
MikeGangGree... Icon : (29 January 2016 - 07:17 PM) FIRE S-DUBB
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (30 January 2016 - 09:10 AM) Dubb and Amen? Did I take a wrong turn and land back in 2007?
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (30 January 2016 - 09:10 AM) Haha good to see both of you
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (30 January 2016 - 03:28 PM) I don't care if Cro comes back, I think Marcus Williams can start opposite Revis. Hes a ball hawk and has performed well everytime hes called on.
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (30 January 2016 - 03:41 PM) I want Fitz back as starter, he lacks arm talent but he is scrappy
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (30 January 2016 - 03:41 PM) The team loves him as a leader and he is a good bridge QB as we groom a QB of the future.
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (30 January 2016 - 03:42 PM) He also has top notch pocket awareness.
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (30 January 2016 - 03:42 PM) He allows our playmakers to make plays. After years of terrible QB play, I'll take 31 TD 15 INTs almost 4,000 yards
MikeGangGree... Icon : (01 February 2016 - 12:41 AM) I can't stop thinking about the off season...... what the hell are we gonna do!!
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (02 February 2016 - 09:59 AM) Maccagnan is going to have to show his worth
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (02 February 2016 - 10:00 AM) They can't have Wilkerson on that franchise tag, they have to sign him long term with a small cap hit or trade him. Otherwise we are in trouble with other FAs.
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (02 February 2016 - 10:00 AM) We need Harrison back, you can't run a effective 3-4 without a stud NT.
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (02 February 2016 - 10:01 AM) I hope we get Harrison back on a 4 yr contract.
MikeGangGree... Icon : (02 February 2016 - 12:55 PM) I really think we are going to have to tag and trade Wilkerson
MikeGangGree... Icon : (02 February 2016 - 12:56 PM) If we keep wilk we lose Harrison or Fitzpatrick maybe both
MikeGangGree... Icon : (02 February 2016 - 12:56 PM) And ivory
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (02 February 2016 - 07:23 PM) We can't keep Wilkerson, Richardson, and Williams. A move has to be made
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (02 February 2016 - 07:25 PM) If the Jets want to go cheaper, they can try to trade Wilkerson and have Richardson/Williams for cheap
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (02 February 2016 - 07:25 PM) Then they can re-sign Harrison, FItzpatrick, Ivory, and maybe Powell.
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (03 February 2016 - 09:59 AM) Kaepernick apparently wants out of SF and wants to join the Jets
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (03 February 2016 - 09:59 AM) Guess he sees the Jets as a team with a great WR tandem and a quality OC who builds a offense around the players
MikeGangGree... Icon : (03 February 2016 - 10:29 AM) No thanks
MikeGangGree... Icon : (03 February 2016 - 10:29 AM) Unless he's dirt cheap
MikeGangGree... Icon : (03 February 2016 - 10:30 AM) The jets would be fools to take on that contract
Jetsfan115 Icon : (03 February 2016 - 02:09 PM) keep powell, snakcs, wilkerson, and fitz. let ivory walk, trade richardson, cut cromartie, restructure brick
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (03 February 2016 - 04:18 PM) Marshall said no to Kaepnerick, he wants FItzpatrick as his QB
vjdbbq Icon : (04 February 2016 - 12:07 PM) Where's Rob ? I need some ass shots !!!!!
MikeGangGree... Icon : (07 February 2016 - 04:16 PM) its crazy how dead this site is
MikeGangGree... Icon : (07 February 2016 - 04:16 PM) its super bowl Sunday!!
vjdbbq Icon : (07 February 2016 - 04:47 PM) Everybody is at Rob's house ; checking out the asses !!!!!
Smedsthejet Icon : (07 February 2016 - 05:17 PM) Hope Cotchery gets a ring tonight
santana Icon : (07 February 2016 - 07:04 PM) Yeah I would rather see a panther win
santana Icon : (07 February 2016 - 07:25 PM) Zzzz
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (07 February 2016 - 09:03 PM) I want to see Manning go out on top
vjdbbq Icon : (07 February 2016 - 11:03 PM) Jerricho got screwed on the call in the first quarter but he dropped a few later on .
vjdbbq Icon : (07 February 2016 - 11:04 PM) Screw Manning and his chicken parm .
MikeGangGree... Icon : (07 February 2016 - 11:29 PM) We need a pass rushing LB!! Look at Denver.
MikeGangGree... Icon : (07 February 2016 - 11:30 PM) Nothing against manning but he wasn't good at all this year and gives me hope that we can reach a super bowl with Fitzpatrick
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (08 February 2016 - 06:42 AM) Denver has two future HOF edge rushers with Miller and Ware.
ganggreen2003 Icon : (08 February 2016 - 08:01 PM) NO to kapergimmick
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 11:37 AM) Yes to Kaepernick, he'd be great here!
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Revis Value To The Jets?

#1 User is offline   Jetsfan115 Icon

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 10:26 AM

Q.

How valuable (in wins, and therefore is dollars) is Darelle Revis?

The salary average and variance varies by position. So too does the impact on the game. Which positions are overpaid and underpaid relative to the average or variance?

How well can you isolate the play of any particular player (e.g., the RB) from that of his teammates (e.g., the O-line)? Who contributes more to a 2000-yard season, the RB or the line? — Erik
A.

We’re nowhere near the point of valuing a player as being worth a number of wins, because we’re light-years away from quantifying all the things a player does. I doubt we’ll ever have a reliable “wins” metric because there are too many interactions between positions that we can’t account for in football. Take a quarterback, for example: even if we were to develop a measure of performance that stripped out the effects of his receivers and offensive line and placed his passing performance in a perfect, league-average context, we’d have to account for how he read defenses and called audibles at the line, how effective he was in setting up defenses on the play-fake, whether he had any impact on the running game versus an average quarterback … it’s not a realistic goal.

By the statistics we do have, though, Darrelle Revis was quite the cornerback in 2009. Our Game Charting Project at Football Outsiders uses a flotilla of volunteers to track a variety of things that aren’t contained in the official NFL play-by-play, like how many blitzers there were on a given pass play, whether there was play-action, or whether a defender rushed the quarterback into a throw. For pass plays, we use the angles provided on TV broadcasts to guesstimate who the receiver in coverage was. (For plays where there’s a blown coverage, our charters can list that the catch came in a “Hole in Zone”; or with clear double coverage, they can list more than one defender.) It’s an inexact science, since it’s difficult to diagnose certain coverage schemes from that camera angle, but it’s a big step in the right direction for analyzing the play of defensive backs.

Two of the primary stats we track for cornerbacks are Yards per Attempt (YPA) and Success Rate. YPA is, very simply, the number of yards a receiver gave up divided by the number of times he was in coverage. Success Rate captures the percentage of the time that the offense threw a pass against a particular defender and gained 45 percent of the needed yards for a new set of downs on first down, 60 percent of the needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of the needed yards on third or fourth down. Completions that don’t meet these standards, incompletions, or interceptions are considered to be failures.

Darrelle Revis paced all starting cornerbacks in both YPA and Success Rate in 2009, and it wasn’t particularly close. His YPA was 2.9 standard deviations above the average performance by a qualifying cornerback, while his Success Rate was 3.0 standard deviations above that average corner.

To try and place that in context with more traditional statistics, I noted that Revis was thrown at 96 times, which was the fifth-most targets of any corner in the league. I split the difference between those two Z-scores, suggesting that Revis was playing at a level 2.95 standard deviations above the average starting corner, and then applied that level of performance on a per-play basis to those players that ranked fifth in the league in usage at their particular category.

The results were staggering. Peyton Manning threw the fifth-most passes of any quarterback in the league. He actually threw for 4,640 yards. If he was playing at a level 2.95 standard deviations above the mean, like Revis was, he would have thrown for 5,532 yards — that would be an NFL record. Maurice Jones-Drew was the running back with the fifth-most carries in the league. While he ran for 1,391 yards, a Revis-style performance would have seen him hit exactly 2,000 yards. Brandon Marshall picked up 1,127 receiving yards while finishing fifth in the league in catches; had he been 2.95 standard deviations above the mean on a per-play basis, he would’ve picked up 1,922 receiving yards, which would also have been a league record.

Placing a value on that sort of performance is another topic altogether, but I think it’s pretty clear that Darrelle Revis spent his 2009 season playing at a truly remarkable level.
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Posted 23 August 2010 - 02:52 PM

Totally necessary but boring :)
21ST CENTURY NEW YORK STATE OF MIND ."REST IN PEACE NIGHT OWL TOM"Use Caution when reading my comments>.Posted Image
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