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azjetfan Icon : (22 April 2015 - 11:03 AM) IMO that's a steep price. I would swap this years first and a conditional 1st next year. Assuming we make the AFC Championship. That would be a 28-32nd pick. Otherwise a second.
MikeGangGree... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 01:07 PM) Yes 2 1st is a lot
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 01:10 PM) draft is next week, pumped
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 03:02 PM) What are thoughts on getting a RB in round 1? McShay's newest mock has us taking Gurley at 6. I don't think we should take him that high, but if we trade down and he's available I'd love to snag him, ACL and all. He's got an unreal skill set that, once healthy, will translate readily to the NFL. We're not getting a QB this year without paying a king's ransom, and unless we pay a ransom for a top guy I say ignore QB. I don't want us to take a Hundley or Petty type in the 2nd or 3rd round when we need other pieces (edge rush, OL)
azjetfan Icon : (22 April 2015 - 03:09 PM) We can probably get Gordon in the second. I would pass at 6. If QB is not available a pass rusher will be. Our biggest needs are QB Pass rusher and Oline.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 03:34 PM) any thourghts on shane ray? i see a lot of mocks have us drafting him
Jetsfan115 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 04:35 PM) last one i seen had us taking cooper, a RB, and hundley for our 1st 3 picks. not thrilled about that
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 04:38 PM) I don't like Gordon much. Not much of a receiver or blocker, ball security issues, tries to bounce outside too much, stuffed frequently. Gurley is in a league of his own
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 04:39 PM) Ray is pretty highly regarded. I'm betting he, Dupree, and Gregory will be our best options as well as edge rushers at 6, but I think that's too high for any of them
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 04:43 PM) Personally love Cooper, I know WR isn't our biggest need but he may be the most NFL ready guy in the Draft. If we stick to the 6th pick and Fowler, Beasley, and Mariota are gone, Cooper is the guy to get. I'd even take him over Beasley
Jetsfan115 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 05:45 PM) i don't mind cooper. decker isn't number 1 IMO and marshall is expensive and getting old
Jetsfan115 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 05:45 PM) and we never draft a WR high
Jetsfan115 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 05:45 PM) but o-line and QB are huge needs. i wouldn't take o-line 6th overall, but i think our 2nd or 3rd should be o-line
Jetsfan115 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 05:46 PM) we need an OLB as well. if we don't land a QB i'd like to see OLB adn O-line with 2 of our top 3 picks
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 08:16 PM) I agree on Deck, not a true #1 and he's had a checkered history with injuries. Marshall has 2, maybe 3 productive years left, which is why Cooper is an option
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 08:17 PM) And I agree with you on edge rusher & OL being bigger needs, but there really isn't a lineman I'd take at 6
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 08:19 PM) So the way I see it, assuming Winston and Mariota are taken when we're at 6, that Fowler and Cooper are our best choices, and I'd be stunned if Fowler drops. I wouldn't be surprised (or upset) if we land Cooper
NJAzrael71 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 08:47 PM) Apparently Tennessee wanted both of Cleveland's #1's and their 2nd rounder to move up to the #2 spot to get Mariota. Still think two 1st rounders are too much for Rivers? He makes us instant contenders and if we make a deep playoff run, it would really be this year's 1st and what equates to basically a 2nd rounder next year.
If not, get Cooper in the 1st and then grab Hundley in the 2nd and O-line in the 3rd.
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:05 PM) I wouldn't be upset with Cooper, hes a stud
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:06 PM) Not sure about Ray. Dupree is rising on the draft boards, ridiculously athletic for his size
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:07 PM) Dupree is 6'4 270 and has a amazing get off and runs a 4.5
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:09 PM) Problem is he doesn't have big sack numbers in college, I rather draft a productive guy high
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:09 PM) Vic Beasley is insanely athletic as well and was hugely productive in college, good bet is that Beasley will be a 10+ sack guy in the NFL
NJAzrael71 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:12 PM) Beasley should be a stud but he gets caught up hand fighting if he doesn't beat his guy quickly. He'll likely end up as an OLB but we'll see
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:15 PM) He'd be a good fit in our defense, because we could use that speed guy on the outside
Chadforpresi... Icon : (23 April 2015 - 06:27 AM) I'd love Rivers, but we should be able to get him without paying 2 first rounders
Chadforpresi... Icon : (23 April 2015 - 06:29 AM) Lot of buzz about Dupree going top 10, most mocks I see have us getting either Ray or Dupree at 6. I prefer Dupree, like you said insane athlete for his size
Chadforpresi... Icon : (23 April 2015 - 06:30 AM) I like Beasley as well but I have a strong feeling Washington will snag him. But he is a small dude, it'd be nice if he'd add some bulk (in Clemson reportedly played around 230)
Chaos Icon : (23 April 2015 - 10:11 AM) @ArifHasanNFL

.@LanceZierlein says on http://sports790.com that Shane Ray will need surgery on foot, 5 months recovery. "Could drop out of first"
Chaos Icon : (23 April 2015 - 10:14 AM) this should change up the top 10
Chadforpresi... Icon : (23 April 2015 - 12:16 PM) Damn that's big. If he drops out of round 1 that could be a massive bargain for whoever gets him round 2. Dupree now looks more like the edge rusher we'd get at 6
MikeGangGree... Icon : (24 April 2015 - 09:40 PM) TEH RANGERS
santana Icon : (24 April 2015 - 11:32 PM) TEH WIZ
Jetsman05 Icon : (Yesterday, 06:57 AM) Teh Suarez
Jetsman05 Icon : (Yesterday, 06:58 AM) Vic Beasley is all speed. No moves, no power. Straight up the field. Could have some big games, then nothing in the next
Jetsman05 Icon : (Yesterday, 06:59 AM) If we don't get Mariota, we should be looking at Schreff or trading down, IMO.
Jetsman05 Icon : (Yesterday, 06:59 AM) A lot of good edge rushers in this draft... I wouldn't want to take Dupree that high.
Jetsman05 Icon : (Yesterday, 07:00 AM) Until next time fellas!
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 01:19 PM) Helloooooooooo
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 01:19 PM) Bueller
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 01:33 PM) Manish says the Jets should trade down and draft Andrus Peat round 1
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 04:39 PM) Even an idiot can say something that's right every now and then
santana Icon : (Today, 08:08 PM) THE CAPS
santana Icon : (Today, 08:28 PM) RIOT
Jetsfan115 Icon : (Today, 08:37 PM) Missouri edge rusher Shane Ray was arrested Monday morning for possession of marijuana in Cooper County, Missouri, Brandon Kiley of KTGR in Columbia, Missouri reports.
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Revis Value To The Jets?

#1 User is offline   Jetsfan115 Icon

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 10:26 AM

Q.

How valuable (in wins, and therefore is dollars) is Darelle Revis?

The salary average and variance varies by position. So too does the impact on the game. Which positions are overpaid and underpaid relative to the average or variance?

How well can you isolate the play of any particular player (e.g., the RB) from that of his teammates (e.g., the O-line)? Who contributes more to a 2000-yard season, the RB or the line? — Erik
A.

We’re nowhere near the point of valuing a player as being worth a number of wins, because we’re light-years away from quantifying all the things a player does. I doubt we’ll ever have a reliable “wins” metric because there are too many interactions between positions that we can’t account for in football. Take a quarterback, for example: even if we were to develop a measure of performance that stripped out the effects of his receivers and offensive line and placed his passing performance in a perfect, league-average context, we’d have to account for how he read defenses and called audibles at the line, how effective he was in setting up defenses on the play-fake, whether he had any impact on the running game versus an average quarterback … it’s not a realistic goal.

By the statistics we do have, though, Darrelle Revis was quite the cornerback in 2009. Our Game Charting Project at Football Outsiders uses a flotilla of volunteers to track a variety of things that aren’t contained in the official NFL play-by-play, like how many blitzers there were on a given pass play, whether there was play-action, or whether a defender rushed the quarterback into a throw. For pass plays, we use the angles provided on TV broadcasts to guesstimate who the receiver in coverage was. (For plays where there’s a blown coverage, our charters can list that the catch came in a “Hole in Zone”; or with clear double coverage, they can list more than one defender.) It’s an inexact science, since it’s difficult to diagnose certain coverage schemes from that camera angle, but it’s a big step in the right direction for analyzing the play of defensive backs.

Two of the primary stats we track for cornerbacks are Yards per Attempt (YPA) and Success Rate. YPA is, very simply, the number of yards a receiver gave up divided by the number of times he was in coverage. Success Rate captures the percentage of the time that the offense threw a pass against a particular defender and gained 45 percent of the needed yards for a new set of downs on first down, 60 percent of the needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of the needed yards on third or fourth down. Completions that don’t meet these standards, incompletions, or interceptions are considered to be failures.

Darrelle Revis paced all starting cornerbacks in both YPA and Success Rate in 2009, and it wasn’t particularly close. His YPA was 2.9 standard deviations above the average performance by a qualifying cornerback, while his Success Rate was 3.0 standard deviations above that average corner.

To try and place that in context with more traditional statistics, I noted that Revis was thrown at 96 times, which was the fifth-most targets of any corner in the league. I split the difference between those two Z-scores, suggesting that Revis was playing at a level 2.95 standard deviations above the average starting corner, and then applied that level of performance on a per-play basis to those players that ranked fifth in the league in usage at their particular category.

The results were staggering. Peyton Manning threw the fifth-most passes of any quarterback in the league. He actually threw for 4,640 yards. If he was playing at a level 2.95 standard deviations above the mean, like Revis was, he would have thrown for 5,532 yards — that would be an NFL record. Maurice Jones-Drew was the running back with the fifth-most carries in the league. While he ran for 1,391 yards, a Revis-style performance would have seen him hit exactly 2,000 yards. Brandon Marshall picked up 1,127 receiving yards while finishing fifth in the league in catches; had he been 2.95 standard deviations above the mean on a per-play basis, he would’ve picked up 1,922 receiving yards, which would also have been a league record.

Placing a value on that sort of performance is another topic altogether, but I think it’s pretty clear that Darrelle Revis spent his 2009 season playing at a truly remarkable level.
Get it done MT
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Posted 23 August 2010 - 02:52 PM

Totally necessary but boring :)
21ST CENTURY NEW YORK STATE OF MIND ."REST IN PEACE NIGHT OWL TOM"Use Caution when reading my comments>.Posted Image
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