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Azjetfan is the nyjetsfan #1 pick
V DidDy 210 Icon : (Yesterday, 11:26 AM) so picking him up is great
Mr_Jet Icon : (Yesterday, 11:30 AM) I want to be the first person to say it. "Broadway Bryce"
V DidDy 210 Icon : (Yesterday, 11:30 AM) imagine being a jaguars super fan haha
Chadforpresi... Icon : (Yesterday, 11:37 AM) Damn Vikes got Clemmings, in round 4 he's worth it
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 12:28 PM) Can we get a post with the selections
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 12:40 PM) It's tough to do with iPad but I'll get one started
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 01:01 PM) Jay Ajayi ?
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 01:02 PM) Maybe a Tyrus Thompson?
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 01:22 PM) Phi a took Ajaji
Smedsthejet Icon : (Yesterday, 01:33 PM) Some depth on the line with the Harrison pick
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 01:43 PM) I read the scouting report for Harrison, the scout said he has probowl talent but has a work ethic concern.
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 03:10 PM) Who the hell is Bryce petty
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 03:20 PM) Tom Pettys brother
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:22 PM) Jets should take Collins with one of their 7th rounders if there
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:22 PM) He has more upside for a 7th rounder than anyone else
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:22 PM) He can start right away at RT
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:29 PM) He said he won't sign
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:32 PM) so he doesn't want to be drafted?
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:33 PM) If Collins doesn't get drafted, he can't enter next years draft. He can only if he is drafted and sits out. So I guess he has to go undrafted
V DidDy 210 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:41 PM) going undrafted makes the most sense for collins
V DidDy 210 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:41 PM) but for teams, drafting him and dealing with his holdout makes more sense
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 04:19 PM) Zac Stacy was traded to us for our 7th
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 04:21 PM) Jets also drafted a NT with our other 7th
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 04:21 PM) 6'4 330 DL who is very strong
V DidDy 210 Icon : (Yesterday, 04:25 PM) zac stacy for a 7th
V DidDy 210 Icon : (Yesterday, 04:25 PM) well can't complain about that
MikeGangGree... Icon : (Yesterday, 04:29 PM) So we have 4 rbs now
V DidDy 210 Icon : (Yesterday, 04:31 PM) still would have rather taken a runner on collins but i can't complain with depth
V DidDy 210 Icon : (Yesterday, 04:32 PM) i mean they can't expect to carry 4 rb though no?
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 05:50 PM) Collins would have been a waste. He would not have signed. At least we have something to show for our pick. Worst case scenario is we trade or release one of our backs.
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 05:56 PM) I know it's hard to tell without seeing a win loss record yet but this regime seems really on point.
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 05:56 PM) For the first time in my life I can say I feel comfortable with the people making the decisions.
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 05:57 PM) I was close with Parcells but he seemed like a short term fixer and didn't care about the long term
MikeGangGree... Icon : (Yesterday, 06:57 PM) SUCK FOR THE DUCK
MikeGangGree... Icon : (Yesterday, 06:57 PM) .......oh wait
santana Icon : (Today, 01:13 AM) Well that was a disappointment
Chadforpresi... Icon : (Today, 01:24 AM) I like getting Stacy for our 7th rounder, assuming he can handle the fact he won't be a feature back (yikes)
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Today, 09:31 AM) I like the trade, hes a quality back and adds more depth to our backfield
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Today, 09:32 AM) Macc has pretty much killed it this offseason
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Today, 09:32 AM) He has turned this roster around, he has added talent and competition all over.
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Today, 09:33 AM) We still aren't great at QB, but our overall football team is good. We have a realistic shot at making a playoff run
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Today, 09:33 AM) We may have the best defense in football. We have a great DL and secondary, that is gonna be tough on offenses when you can stop the run, pressure the QB, and blanket the receivers
ganggreen2003 Icon : (Today, 09:23 PM) ok now it's time for this team to take all this talent and do something anything below a 10-6 season will be a disappointment
ganggreen2003 Icon : (Today, 09:24 PM) the only still glaring issue is QB
ganggreen2003 Icon : (Today, 09:25 PM) we got the WR problem solved, we got probably one of the best Defenses in the game and we have addressed the OL but QB will still be the glaring issue
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Revis Value To The Jets?

#1 User is offline   Jetsfan115 Icon

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 10:26 AM

Q.

How valuable (in wins, and therefore is dollars) is Darelle Revis?

The salary average and variance varies by position. So too does the impact on the game. Which positions are overpaid and underpaid relative to the average or variance?

How well can you isolate the play of any particular player (e.g., the RB) from that of his teammates (e.g., the O-line)? Who contributes more to a 2000-yard season, the RB or the line? — Erik
A.

We’re nowhere near the point of valuing a player as being worth a number of wins, because we’re light-years away from quantifying all the things a player does. I doubt we’ll ever have a reliable “wins” metric because there are too many interactions between positions that we can’t account for in football. Take a quarterback, for example: even if we were to develop a measure of performance that stripped out the effects of his receivers and offensive line and placed his passing performance in a perfect, league-average context, we’d have to account for how he read defenses and called audibles at the line, how effective he was in setting up defenses on the play-fake, whether he had any impact on the running game versus an average quarterback … it’s not a realistic goal.

By the statistics we do have, though, Darrelle Revis was quite the cornerback in 2009. Our Game Charting Project at Football Outsiders uses a flotilla of volunteers to track a variety of things that aren’t contained in the official NFL play-by-play, like how many blitzers there were on a given pass play, whether there was play-action, or whether a defender rushed the quarterback into a throw. For pass plays, we use the angles provided on TV broadcasts to guesstimate who the receiver in coverage was. (For plays where there’s a blown coverage, our charters can list that the catch came in a “Hole in Zone”; or with clear double coverage, they can list more than one defender.) It’s an inexact science, since it’s difficult to diagnose certain coverage schemes from that camera angle, but it’s a big step in the right direction for analyzing the play of defensive backs.

Two of the primary stats we track for cornerbacks are Yards per Attempt (YPA) and Success Rate. YPA is, very simply, the number of yards a receiver gave up divided by the number of times he was in coverage. Success Rate captures the percentage of the time that the offense threw a pass against a particular defender and gained 45 percent of the needed yards for a new set of downs on first down, 60 percent of the needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of the needed yards on third or fourth down. Completions that don’t meet these standards, incompletions, or interceptions are considered to be failures.

Darrelle Revis paced all starting cornerbacks in both YPA and Success Rate in 2009, and it wasn’t particularly close. His YPA was 2.9 standard deviations above the average performance by a qualifying cornerback, while his Success Rate was 3.0 standard deviations above that average corner.

To try and place that in context with more traditional statistics, I noted that Revis was thrown at 96 times, which was the fifth-most targets of any corner in the league. I split the difference between those two Z-scores, suggesting that Revis was playing at a level 2.95 standard deviations above the average starting corner, and then applied that level of performance on a per-play basis to those players that ranked fifth in the league in usage at their particular category.

The results were staggering. Peyton Manning threw the fifth-most passes of any quarterback in the league. He actually threw for 4,640 yards. If he was playing at a level 2.95 standard deviations above the mean, like Revis was, he would have thrown for 5,532 yards — that would be an NFL record. Maurice Jones-Drew was the running back with the fifth-most carries in the league. While he ran for 1,391 yards, a Revis-style performance would have seen him hit exactly 2,000 yards. Brandon Marshall picked up 1,127 receiving yards while finishing fifth in the league in catches; had he been 2.95 standard deviations above the mean on a per-play basis, he would’ve picked up 1,922 receiving yards, which would also have been a league record.

Placing a value on that sort of performance is another topic altogether, but I think it’s pretty clear that Darrelle Revis spent his 2009 season playing at a truly remarkable level.
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#2 User is offline   gmany3k Icon

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Posted 23 August 2010 - 02:52 PM

Totally necessary but boring :)
21ST CENTURY NEW YORK STATE OF MIND ."REST IN PEACE NIGHT OWL TOM"Use Caution when reading my comments>.Posted Image
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