NYJetsFan.com Forums: How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'moneyball' Revolution In Nfl - NYJetsFan.com Forums

Jump to content

Toggle shoutbox NYJETSFAN BANTER

JETS SUPER BOWL THIS WEEKEND
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (17 December 2014 - 09:54 AM) Should I go Vincent Jackson or Jarvis Landry as my WR3?
Jetsfan115 Icon : (17 December 2014 - 11:13 AM) i'd go landry
Jetsman05 Icon : (17 December 2014 - 11:40 AM) The opposite of what Mr Jet thinks about it.
santana Icon : (17 December 2014 - 01:03 PM) Top Bantz by 05
santana Icon : (17 December 2014 - 01:03 PM) http://www.gfycat.co...ousAlaskanhusky
MikeGangGree... Icon : (17 December 2014 - 02:13 PM) 'Fire Idzik' banner returns for Jets
santana Icon : (17 December 2014 - 04:23 PM) jets fans are loony. shoutbox is clear evidence of that.
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (17 December 2014 - 04:28 PM) Nah Jets fans are all level headed individuals
Jetsman05 Icon : (17 December 2014 - 04:40 PM) Zzzzz
santana Icon : (17 December 2014 - 04:44 PM) i agree very level headed
santana Icon : (17 December 2014 - 04:44 PM) ILL KILL YOU ILL KILL ALL OF YOU I AAM THE TABLE!!!!
Chaos Icon : (17 December 2014 - 06:30 PM) @RapSheet: Sources: #Michigan has made another run at Jim Harbaugh after he initially rebuffed the school. U-M has made an offer of 6 years, $48M. Wow.
Chaos Icon : (17 December 2014 - 06:33 PM) @AdamSchefter: Stunner from Chicago: Bears starting QB Jimmy Clausen this week, per source.
Chaos Icon : (17 December 2014 - 06:33 PM) LOL
santana Icon : (17 December 2014 - 06:34 PM) cutler to jets confirmed!
MikeGangGree... Icon : (17 December 2014 - 06:36 PM) Cutler?? WOOOOOO
santana Icon : (17 December 2014 - 06:39 PM) 49ers gotta whip out that check book
santana Icon : (17 December 2014 - 06:40 PM) jets resign rex for 2 more years and get cutler
santana Icon : (17 December 2014 - 07:26 PM) http://cdn.ksk.uprox...ing-650x487.png
santana Icon : (18 December 2014 - 03:19 PM) holy shit thrilling match up tonight
2JBallar01 Icon : (18 December 2014 - 04:13 PM) Does it matter who wins tonight? Draft pick wise for the Jets?
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (18 December 2014 - 04:16 PM) Probably not. We probably want to draft above the Titans though if that is possible, they are a team that could use a QB. The Jaguars just drafted Blake Bortles, doubt they go first round QB 2 years in a row
santana Icon : (18 December 2014 - 04:29 PM) so titans win is best win
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (18 December 2014 - 05:52 PM) DRAFT WINSTON
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (18 December 2014 - 05:52 PM) FIRE IDZIK
2JBallar01 Icon : (18 December 2014 - 07:05 PM) I'm leaning towards wanting to draft Cooper or oline with the first pick. have a good line and or relceiver core and try and sign Bradford or trade for Cutler to play QB. And have Geno as back up for us.
2JBallar01 Icon : (18 December 2014 - 07:06 PM) Not sure if Winston can be a franchise QB. Even Mariota has question marks.
ganggreen2003 Icon : (18 December 2014 - 08:25 PM) That is why we need to draft Cooper at WR and then later in the draft go and get Petty
santana Icon : (18 December 2014 - 09:44 PM) clipboard jesus lead the way
santana Icon : (18 December 2014 - 09:48 PM) I miss leon
ROBJETS Icon : (18 December 2014 - 11:35 PM) If the Jets would have lost last week since the Jags won the Jets would have the 2 seed right now and not stuck at the 6 seed
ROBJETS Icon : (18 December 2014 - 11:36 PM) Oh well
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 11:21 AM) I think IK shows potential as a pass rusher
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 12:50 PM) If the new HC goes to a 4-3 it will be interesting to see if Couples can play on the end.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (Yesterday, 01:43 PM) he's probably better as a 4-3 DE then a 3-4 LBer anyway
Jetsfan115 Icon : (Yesterday, 01:43 PM) we'd need another DT though
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 02:12 PM) Rex to atlanta rumors swirling about
2JBallar01 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:35 PM) Who should be my 2 starters at WR for my fantasy. Championship game. It's between AJ Green, Djax, and Mike Evans. I have Hilton too but I think colts will sit him this week
2JBallar01 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:36 PM) I'm thinking Djax and Evans. I don't think the match up with green vs Denver
2JBallar01 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:37 PM) I have Ingram, Lamar Miller, and Lacy as my RBs and flex
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 03:41 PM) green and desean pretty much the same risk reward
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 03:41 PM) lock evans in and play the matchup for the other spot
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 03:41 PM) also might snow in denver mnf i would keep an eye on that
2JBallar01 Icon : (Yesterday, 04:48 PM) Good thinkin! I think I'm going to play djax. I like the match up better
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Today, 03:09 PM) Atlanta would be a good landing spot for REx. He'll have Matt Ryan there so no need to develop a QB and he'll make the defense better
Resize Shouts Area

Page 1 of 1

How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'moneyball' Revolution In Nfl

#1 User is offline   Chaos Icon

  • D Coordinator
  • Icon
  • Group: Assistant Admin
  • Posts: 3,071
  • Joined: 30-March 05
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 November 2012 - 12:06 AM

Quote

How Oregon Coach Chip Kelly Can Spark 'Moneyball' Revolution In NFL

For those who know Oregon coach Chip Kelly's mannerisms, his trademark smirk was in full effect. This was during the Ducks' first real "test" this season, a home game against Arizona, and they saw their opening drive end when the Wildcats stuffed quarterback Marcus Mariota for a 4-yard loss on fourth and 1.

After the tackle, Arizona linebackers rejoiced with passionate fist pumps and jumped on top of each other like frogs mating. The Wildcats were getting the ball in field-goal range (Oregon's 35-yard line) with a chance to take an early lead on the No. 3-ranked Ducks, but more importantly, they had just won their first battle against Kelly's virtually unstoppable "Quack Attack" offense. Yet, as he paced the Oregon sideline, Kelly reeked of smugness.

Kelly had set the tone, and his demeanor made clear that he was unperturbed by the outcome of the previous play. Kelly goes for it on fourth down consistently and confidently. Oregon's players, on both sides of the ball, comprehend Kelly's strategy. The Ducks didn't convert, but they didn't care, because they knew the following equations would hold true:

Oregon's offense > Arizona's defense
Chip Kelly > Every other coach in college football

Oregon's next fourth-and-short came late in the second quarter when the Ducks faced a fourth-and-2 on their own 34-yard line. Kelly went for it again, and this time Kenjon Barner ran for six yards and a first down. Oregon went on to a 16-play scoring drive that ate up all but 28 seconds of the first half and totally deflated Arizona's defense. Oregon went on to score 36 points in the second half en route to a 49-0 win.

Those fourth down calls epitomize Kelly's aggressiveness but what the average football fan doesn't realize is that Chip's play-calls (the fourth down tries, fake punts, two-point conversions, etc.) are almost always the correct mathematical decision. Like Paul DePodesta and Billy Beane did in baseball, Kelly's genius comes from exploiting arithmetic that other coaches are too naïve to acknowledge.

Six years ago, Chip Kelly was the offensive coordinator at the University of New Hampshire. In January, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fired coach Raheem Morris and targeted Kelly as his replacement. Although Chip turned down the Bucs' offer because he had "unfinished business" at Oregon (read: national championship), Kelly's ascent through the coaching ranks has been nothing short of extraordinary. From an assistant at a Division I-AA school to turning down an NFL head coaching job in six years. Not bad, Chip. Not bad.

It's a shame Kelly didn't take his talents to Tampa because he would have single-handedly changed the way the NFL game is played by this point in the season. He'd turn the focus away from concussions and make people realize that football is a chess match, a game of strategy, and when played correctly, a beautiful thing.

Here's an example of how the NFL works. The Miami Dolphins were 1-15 in 2007 and started off the '08 season 0-2. In Week 3, they instituted the Wildcat offense, finished 11-3, and made the playoffs. Pundits argued that the Wildcat was a gimmick, that defenses would adjust, that it would never last, and they were partially right. Defenses did adjust, yet somehow, five years later, more than fifty percent of NFL teams have a version of the Wildcat in their playbook.

Why does this matter? Because when something catches on in the NFL, everyone jumps on the bandwagon. At first they refute it, call it a fluke, and then eventually, when a team wins 11 out of 14 games after losing 17 of its previous 18, they realize that there might be something to the newfound strategy and hurry to insert into their playbooks. The NFL is a cat and mouse league.

This is how and why Chip Kelly will modernize the game in the same way that Billy Beane's triumphs showed baseball executives that getting on base is more important than batting average. Soon enough Kelly will take over an NFL team. (A national championship is possible this season, but those Bama boys are a different breed and that Saban fella is a pretty incredible coach in his own right.) Whenever Kelly does enter the league, he'll play the game aggressively, with "aggressively" meaning in a mathematically logical fashion. By the end of the season every coach will be going for it on fourth down, attempting fake punts, fake field goals, two-point conversions, and they'll likely do all of this oblivious to the fact that there's astounding mathematical evidence supporting the decisions they're making.

They'll just see Chip Kelly's team lighting up the scoreboard and follow suit because … well, 90 percent of NFL coaches are followers.

The fact that the league has ignored such rudimentary math for so long and that the average team's miscalculations account for approximately one loss per year (we'll get to that later) is mind-boggling. How has there not been a revolt? How have millions of fans watched silently as NFL coaches, refusing to stray from orthodoxy, continually punt away games (pun very much intended)? How has there not been a boycott?

These men are at the height of their profession and haven't utilized information that's been available for more than 10 years. It's the same exact thing that happened in baseball, but in this case, Bill James comes in the form of astrophysicist Chuck Bower and his partner Frank Frigo.

Frigo and Bower invented the Zeus computer program, which takes fourth-down situations such as the ones Oregon had against Arizona, and and runs them to conclusion as many as a million times to determine the optimum play-call. The system incorporates the teams' characteristics, ball position, yards to first down, clock, and timeouts. Needless to say, these guys are smart.

Complex algorithms aside, the outcomes are incredibly simple. Zeus tells us that teams should almost always go for it on fourth and short, attempt more onsides kicks, go for two-point conversions, in other words, do all the things that Chip Kelly does on a routine basis.

But the most important thing to take away from Zeus' findings is that the math isn't even close. The numbers are so overwhelming that teams that kick field goals on fourth and short at the 20-yard line aren't just wrong, they're so wrong it's ludicrous. For the Texas Hold ‘Em players out there, kicking a field goal in that situation is like folding pocket aces pre-flop against a smaller pocket pair. You're conceding when you're the overwhelming favorite. Even if the guy hits his set and wins the hand, you don't have any regrets. You know you made the right call and that you'll win the hand a majority of the time. NFL teams kick the field goal and "take the points" virtually every time when in reality a field goal kicker (like a punter) should only be used in times of desperation. When it's fourth and 15, for example.

Note: Zeus breaks down its calculations into GWC or "Game Winning Chance." By going for the field goal in the previous example -- fourth and 1 at the 20-yard line -- a team decreases its chances of winning by X percent. Since there are so few offensive plays in the average game (usually around 70-90 depending on the team) every punt or field goal attempt chosen incorrectly can have a profound effect on the outcome of the game.

Here's an example of how the abstract concept of "momentum" carries far more weight with NFL authorities than concrete mathematics.

It's the first round of the 2009 AFC playoffs and the Chargers have a 7-0 lead against the Jets. The Chargers have fourth and inches at their own 47-yard line with a little more than nine minutes left in the 2nd quarter.

What does Chargers coach Norv Turner decide to do? He decides to punt of course! And the Chargers, as you may remember, had one of the best offenses in the league that season, not to mention that Philip Rivers, or any other quarterback for that matter, can convert a 6-inch sneak 99 percent of the time.

From what you just read, you're fully aware this was a preposterous decision, but Phil Simms, who was announcing the game, pontificated for several minutes that Turner made the right call because the Chargers couldn't risk losing momentum. He wouldn't stop talking about the importance of momentum and how the Chargers would instantly lose it, whatever "it" may be, had they gone for the first down and not converted. No mention of the momentum that would have been created had the Chargers converted the fourth down, which they would have done easily.

In Phil's eyes, those handsome blue eyes, Turner's call was undoubtedly the right one, and the fact it didn't work out – San Diego didn't score again until the fourth quarter after falling behind 17-7 -- was unlucky. The trouble with luck, cousin to momentum, brother to coincidence, is that there's no way to calculate it.

Rex Ryan, a man's man, not afraid of fourth and short (or sticking his foot in his mouth), would jam the decision down Turner's throat when he converted on fourth and 1 at the end of the game. Thomas Jones rewarded the logical strategic move with a 2-yard run.

But really, both decisions were no-brainers. Just one guy is less of moron.

In addition to the NFL's ineptitude on fourth down, the game's infuriating conservatism trickles down into all play-calling aspects of the game. In 2009 ESPN the Magazine offered this statistic: In college football that year, the kicking team had recovered 63 percent of onsides kicks when the receiving team was expecting a normal kickoff (the "hands" team wasn't on the field).

The Saints won the Super Bowl that season because they started off the second half with an onsides kick recovery. It was a brilliant call by Sean Payton, who along with Bill Belichick, are the two NFL coaches who appear to have a fairly firm grasp on football's mathematics. In fact, Belichick met with Frigo and Bower shortly after they invented Zeus, but passed on purchasing the super computer's services. My guess is that Bill got all the information he needed during their meeting, namely, that the math says to go for it on fourth and short, a decision he's made repeatedly throughout his brilliant tenure in New England.

What Zeus tells us with undeniable statistical evidence is that teams are costing themselves possessions, points, and most importantly, wins, by ignoring the math inside the game. Although Kelly is the standard for strategic brilliance, it's important to note that USC coach Lane Kiffin possesses the same aggressiveness.

USC has been a huge disappointment this season. But given its personnel and Kiffin's propensity to make the correct call on fourth down (despite being a horrendous play-caller in general), at least the Trojans won't sacrifice any chance of winning Saturday, when the Trojans host the Ducks, due to mathematical naïveté.

In fact, assuming the Ducks play Alabama in the BCS national championship game, which I believe will be the case, the Ducks "Game Winning Chance" could increase fairly significantly due to Kelly's refusal to give up the ball. It hurts to diminish Nick Saban in any way because he's by far the best recruiter/defensive mind/man-molder of anyone else in the business, but if he has a weak link against Oregon, it's that he won't entrust McCarron and new offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier (who's fantastic) in fourth and short situations. He'd rather punt it away and play defense. Enough conversions by the Ducks and punts by the Tide might make that game far more interesting.

If you're an NFL fan, think about all the games you've watched in your lifetime that have been botched by dumb coaching. How many real and fantasy football games have you or your favorite team lost because guys like Norv Turner, Phil Simms, and other so-called "experts" preach about momentum rather than mathematics?

Perhaps the most glaring offseason example of the NFL's conformist nature came from the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags spent a third-round pick (very valuable for any NFL team) on Cal punter Bryan Anger, essentially saying that they expect their offense to be incompetent. So for all you Jacksonville fans out there, all 12 of you, I wonder how it feels knowing that your team cannot wait to punt the ball. Shahid Khan seems like a pretty smart guy. I hope he reads this and sends the Jags in a different direction. I'd assume they'd sell more tickets if they cut their punter, traded for Tebow, and did what Kevin Kelley did at Pulaski High.

That's the best part about the math: It says that NFL games are far too conservative. It says that coaches need to loosen up, air it out, embrace creativity.

This is why the NFL needs Chip Kelly.

In the meantime, if you're a football fan, and your team kicks a field goal on fourth-and-1 on the 25 yard-line, leave the stadium and don't come back. That decision, which happens in almost every NFL game on a weekly basis, is the equivalent of an MLB manager starting a guy with a .300 On-Base Percentage instead of a guy with a .400 On-Base Percentage because the guy with a .300 OBP is 6-5 with great shoulders and a handsome smile.

Baseball had its "Moneyball" revolution. The NFL will too, but first, Chip Kelly needs to win a national championship.

All I can say is, go Ducks.


http://www.thepostga...-revolution-nfl
0

#2 User is offline   a1elbow2.0 Icon

  • Special Teams
  • Icon
  • Group: Members
  • Posts: 244
  • Joined: 08-August 12

  • NFL Team:

  • MLB:

Posted 08 November 2012 - 07:27 AM

This writer needs to watch some NFL gamss. I love to watch Oregon play and they're great, but they would be a two loss team by now in the SEC and labama will dominate them if they play.

View PostClemens11, on 12 August 2012 - 01:21 PM, said:

1 int for every 4 tis is a pretty nice ratio to me


Bottomfeeder Tracker: 6-17 vs teams with a winning record.
0

#3 User is offline   reg83ny Icon

  • TMZ Correspondent
  • Icon
  • Group: Moderator
  • Posts: 4,560
  • Joined: 30-March 05
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Beantown...I missed NY

  • MLB:

Posted 08 November 2012 - 10:12 AM

This is the Guy I want to replace Rex. He could of been a coach this year In The NFL but Nike stepped In and said no. He will leave Oregon when his Nike deal is done. He can definitely revived this offense. I'm sick of Rex
0

#4 User is offline   SecondHandJets Icon

  • Assistant Head Coach
  • Icon
  • Group: Members
  • Posts: 7,489
  • Joined: 28-November 05
  • Gender:Male

  • NFL Team:

  • MLB:

Posted 08 November 2012 - 11:58 AM

I've been reading TMQ column for the last decade. There is huge upside to going for it on every 4th and less than 4.
0

#5 User is offline   Smedsthejet Icon

  • Assistant Head Coach
  • Icon
  • Group: Moderator
  • Posts: 8,267
  • Joined: 10-April 05
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:London, England

  • NFL Team:

  • MLB:

Posted 08 November 2012 - 01:27 PM

View PostSecondHandJets, on 08 November 2012 - 05:58 PM, said:

I've been reading TMQ column for the last decade. There is huge upside to going for it on every 4th and less than 4.


While I agree, it surely also needs to be considered that there is far more reason for an NFL head coach to be risk averse than a college coach. With the amount of money in the league, only 12 of 32 teams making the playoffs, and just two making the title game, coaches are understandably more wary of making decisions that could backfire spectacularly. And, let's be honest, people remember failed attempts on 4th and short - think Belichick's decision to go for it late in the game against the Colts and Mike Smith's decision to go for it in the Falcons' own half of the field during overtimte against the Saints - than they do successful conversions. Only when the media and fans start reacting rationally to decisions like that (which were arguably the correct decisions, just poorly executed plays), would head coaches feel comfortable going for it consistently on fourth down.

There is plenty of money in the college game, but there's also arguably more margin for error. With five BCS bowls and countless other bowls, qualifying for the postseason is far easier. In major conferences like the Pac-12 where Kelly coaches the stakes will be higher, but in the unlikely event that Oregon fail to win their conference's title, they're still likely to play in a BCS bowl and be in for a huge payday. There's a difference in standard of defence too. Plus coaches seem to get more time to prove themselves in the college game than the pros (that is just a hunch though and I would like to see a study comparing that).

It would be nice to see coaches take more risks, but at the moment not even Bill Belichick is foregoing field goal attempts or punts. The thing he's taken from Oregon is speeding up the game on offense. I think an article on that was posted on here before, but here's a link to it again:
http://www.bostonglo...rN6J/story.html
Hurrying things up on offense is something I'd like to see the Jets adopt from Chip Kelly - it's infuriating the number of times we seem to take the play clock down to five and the speed at which plays get called in.
0

Page 1 of 1


Fast Reply

  

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users