My Big Offseason Thread:
Posted 26 January 2013 - 01:54 PM
First off, we're trading Revis. I don't care that you don't want to. It's going to happen and it's going to happen this season. I'm using Walter Football for my draft pick database and I'm using nyjetscap.com for my salary numbers.
1. Trade Revis to Minnesota Vikings for Percy Harvin, their 1st rounder (#23), their 3rd rounder and a conditional pick next year (that can escalate based on Revis' performance). Why the Jets would do it: we can't resign Revis (don't turn this into another Revis debate, there's a 4 page thread on that already). according to our HC, he wants the FO to get some offensive players and Harvin fits the bill. According to our GM, "the draft is going to be the lifeline" of this team so we'll be stockpiling picks. Why Minny would do it: to get to the top of the NFC North, they have to stop Rodgers, stop Megatron and stop Brandon Marshall. They're not going to get it done with AJ Jefferson starting for 8 weeks. Their draft pick is low enough that it won't seem too expensive. Lastly, Frasier and Harvin absolutely hate each other and Harvin was placed on IR following a shouting match with Frasier in the lockerroom. Harvin asked for a trade a year ago, and he's on the last year of his rookie deal. When healthy and motivated, Harvin is a premier athlete and one of the best WRs in the league.
Why would the Jets want Harvin? We're switching the the WC offense and we'll need players who can make plays after the catch. Getting Harvin on the last year of his contract is risky, not only because he can walk in 2014, but also because he's got a lot of Santonio Holmes in him... which brings me to my next point: have Harvin play his ass off for a new deal, like we all know he will, then, in 2014 CUT HOLMES. If Holmes is cut in 2013, that amounts to a cap savings of $1.2M but if he's cut in 2014, that's a whopping $8.25M off the cap! That's about what Harvin will sign for. To recap, in 2013, we'll have Holmes and Harvin running slant routes and then next year, we'll pay Harvin what we owe Holmes and let Holmes go.
Jason Smith ($12)
Calvin Pace ($8.56)
Bart Scott ($7.15)
Eric Smith ($3M)
Tim Tebow ($1.53)
That's a cap savings of $33M, bringing us down from $146M to $113. We're now under the projected cap of $121M by $9M, that's before restructuring guys like Harris and Pouha.
I'm not going to go through resigning every single FA, but I do believe that we need to bring back Landry, Brandon Moore and Matt Slausen in that order. That will probably eat up most of our cap room, with the restructuring of existing contracts giving us the room to sign our draft picks.
3. The Draft:
Now this is of course dependent on who we have on our board in 3 months, and as we just watched Te'o cost himself about 20 spots, there's a lot that can happen between today and the draft. I'm using Walter Football's mock as a rough guide for where some guys will go.
Also, having watched Idzik's presser, it's pretty obvious that we'll be looking to trade down out of the #9 spot. So that's what I'm going to have us do:
The NYJ trade the # 9 overall (1350 points) to the Bengals for their #21 (800 points) and #37 (via Oakland 530 points) and a 2014 3rd round pick. Why the Jets make this trade: I don't see us taking a QB in the first round and this draft plateaus after the Top 5. We need to fill multiple holes and need to bank some picks. Why Cincy makes this trade: Cincy is poised to take over the AFC North, but they're one player away. Their safeties are hot garbage and if they want to make the SB, they'll have to stop Pitta, Heath and then Gronk and Hernandez. If they have a shot of getting a guy like Kenny Vaccaro to shore up their secondary, they'll pull the trigger.
Okay, so here are my draft picks:
#21: Dion Jordan (OLB). I'm hoping he falls because of the injury. He might blow everyone away at the combine and become a Top 10 pick, so who knows. If he's not here, I see that Ezekiel Ansah is being mocked in the early 20 range and is drawing some JPP comparisons.
#23: Manti Te'o. If Chance Warmack falls, this is the guy we should get. If Alec Ogeltree is still on the board, we'll choose the best ILB from these two. Our LBers are a joke and since I just cut two of them, we're just left with Harris. Or Run D was pathetic last season. This will help that.
#37: Barrrt Jones (G/C). If Jonathan Cooper falls, then we'll draft him. Either way, whoever is going to be our QB, we'll need to keep him upright. I doubt we resign both Moore and Slauson and if Ducasse starts a game this season, you can pencil in a concussion to whoever is behind C.
#41: Tyler Eifert (TE). Not that I'm a big fan, but he's the best TE available at this spot and we desperately need a TE. Keller is going to become a FA and although I think he might come back, he's still not a good blocker and he's becoming injury prone.
#73: Best CB available. I'm not going to pretend I know the difference between Nickell Robey, Will Davis or Blidi Wreh-Wilson. We got it right between Revis, Aaron Ross and Leon Hall so I trust our guys to take whoever is better to replace Revis down the line... even though no one will ever replace Revis.
#83: Khaseem Greene (LB). Don't know too much about him, but EJ has been texting me about this kid. Apparently he thinks that Greene is going to fly up draft boards and become a last 1st rounder. Whatever, I see him mocked here. If the FO feels comfortable with McIntyre starting, I can see them going for a S like Robert Lester or a RT like Chris Faulk. I actually prefer Faulk here because I think the OL is a bigger need than another LBer since I just drafted 2 in the 1st round... but considering we're so thin at LBer, it may not be a bad thing.
#103: Zac Dysert (QB). This guy is getting a ton of Ben Rothlisberger comparisons, plus he looks like Sunshine from Rememeber the Titans. Let him ride the pine for a year and hopefully he can become what we've been missing.
5th Round: Draft whoever falls, like if Matheui or Denard Robinson is still around, grab them. We need more athletes on this team.
Baby woke up, and I'm pretty much done anyway. Discuss.
Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:09 PM
Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:13 PM
I have a major man-crush on Dysert. I'm gonna get more annoying as the draft gets closer.
Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:23 PM
Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:26 PM
The guy who runs that Jets cap site had a article explaining how they lose cap space by trading Revis.
Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:31 PM
Posted 26 January 2013 - 06:09 PM
Posted 28 January 2013 - 12:08 AM
Posted 28 January 2013 - 12:52 AM
Not sure if you read everything I wrote, but I have us releasing Holmes in 2014 so we would t hav both Harvin and Holmes making $10M
Posted 28 January 2013 - 05:13 AM
Posted 28 January 2013 - 01:37 PM
Thats even worse. SO we esstinally trade away revis to get havrin so we have some WR help then trade away holmes and were back to only having 1 viable WR ATM? and harvin isn't any better then holmes. the problem is o-line and QB more then WR. IN what world is harvin in exchange for revis and holmes help us in any way?
Posted 28 January 2013 - 03:40 PM