NYJetsFan.com Forums: Waiting On Revis - NYJetsFan.com Forums

Jump to content

Toggle shoutbox NYJETSFAN BANTER

RetireChrebet Icon : (22 March 2015 - 01:26 PM) seed?
RetireChrebet Icon : (22 March 2015 - 01:28 PM) Haha I'm jk man, but my point was if you've never seen virginia play you would know they weren't going anywhere. Their offense is just painful to watch.
ROBJETS Icon : (22 March 2015 - 03:46 PM) Lol....point taken. But a couple of things. 1 you do realize Nova and Va are in the same bracket right? 2 at least Va lost to a top 25 ranked opponent. Nova lost to an unranked.
ROBJETS Icon : (22 March 2015 - 03:49 PM) Also VA beat some good teams. Lost to Duke,beat Maryland and split games with NC and Louisville. Their wins against quality and ranked opponents was higher and better than Nova.
ROBJETS Icon : (22 March 2015 - 03:55 PM) NC State didn't even get one vote to be in the top 25
2JBallar01 Icon : (22 March 2015 - 10:53 PM) @RichCimini: Random contract note: Antonio Cromartie's 4 yr/$32M deal with Jets includes only $7M gtd - $5M base + $2M roster bonus at signing. #nyj
Mr_Jet Icon : (23 March 2015 - 11:45 AM) January - February - Izzo - April - May
2JBallar01 Icon : (24 March 2015 - 01:09 PM) @MMehtaNYDN: Jets announce that they have signed DE Stephen Bowen. #nyj
2JBallar01 Icon : (24 March 2015 - 01:09 PM) @DrewfromJersey: Coples days as an OLB are over. He'll be back to DL. Good for the #Jets. Pretty bad news for NFL players and their heads. #Jets
2JBallar01 Icon : (24 March 2015 - 01:10 PM) @DWAZ73: #Jets busy today, signing DE Stephen Bowen & OT Corey Hilliard, and making signing of DE Kevin Vickerson official.
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (24 March 2015 - 03:23 PM) Mike is building some depth and competition
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (24 March 2015 - 03:23 PM) I like it
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (24 March 2015 - 08:10 PM) Jets file tampering charges against Patriots for Kraft's comments
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (24 March 2015 - 08:10 PM) lmao
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (24 March 2015 - 09:53 PM) Jets signing Kellen Davis, TE
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (24 March 2015 - 10:00 PM) Hes a good blocking TE
JSOTF Icon : (25 March 2015 - 06:02 AM) So, the question is.......Do I invest to go see the Jets vs Fish in England this season????????
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (25 March 2015 - 07:10 AM) I'm considering going
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (25 March 2015 - 07:10 AM) My brother is moving to London next year...so I have a reason to be over there
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (25 March 2015 - 07:10 AM) This August I should say
Smedsthejet Icon : (25 March 2015 - 02:59 PM) You both should do it...I'll buy the first (overpriced) beers as well! Got my ticket back in January
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (25 March 2015 - 03:02 PM) Smeds if I come over I'll be sure to check you out
santana Icon : (25 March 2015 - 09:58 PM) FIRE FIREMAN ED
JSOTF Icon : (26 March 2015 - 03:58 AM) Well, I now live accros the pond and maybe some of us could meet up there?
JSOTF Icon : (26 March 2015 - 03:59 AM) Smeds, where did you get your tickets?
ROBJETS Icon : (26 March 2015 - 05:56 AM) Az bitches!!!
ROBJETS Icon : (26 March 2015 - 06:01 AM) I dont know about all that. As bad as we get over sports the Brits get far worse. You might suffer a huge beat down if you say the wrong thing there. Well maybe not being its televised to the U.S.. Security probably be pretty tight.
ROBJETS Icon : (26 March 2015 - 06:03 AM) Well...... the good thing is I know who to mooch off of now if I go to London.
JSOTF Icon : (26 March 2015 - 06:47 AM) hahahaha, it isnt European Football!
ROBJETS Icon : (26 March 2015 - 07:04 AM) Ive seen a lot of videos. Most countries go psycho over their soccer teams. Ive seen some serious very bloody beat downs. Fans stabbing the players and refs,etc. And they say we are bad in the U.S. not even close to that.
ROBJETS Icon : (26 March 2015 - 07:06 AM) I think one was in Africa....a fan stormed the field and was knifing everyone in sight after his team lost
ROBJETS Icon : (26 March 2015 - 07:08 AM) Hell even in mma when the Brits come over they are all cocky as hell. Big time cocky like they are going to easily destroy everyone they face cocky.
JSOTF Icon : (26 March 2015 - 07:36 AM) hahahaha
JSOTF Icon : (26 March 2015 - 07:36 AM) damn Europeans!
JSOTF Icon : (26 March 2015 - 07:37 AM) They havent fucked with a disgruntled, lifelong Jets fan!!!
Smedsthejet Icon : (26 March 2015 - 02:49 PM) Got my tickets from Ticketmaster the day they went on general sale
ROBJETS Icon : (Yesterday, 02:33 AM) You guys get Bellator in London? http://www.bellator.com/schedule its on Spike tv free regular cable channel. in the U.S. and the prelims are free on http://www.spike.com/
ROBJETS Icon : (Yesterday, 02:37 AM) London is 4 hours ahead of east coast U.S. Bellator prelims are 7pm Friday night U.S. East Coast time and the main card is 9pm So just add 4 hours to that if you can catch either. Im sure you can catch a stream or use a U.S. VPN if you dont have access to Spike.com. You guys might get Bellator on another channel their just like with the UFC.
ROBJETS Icon : (Yesterday, 02:47 AM) Anyway only reason I mentioned it was because of your sense of humor. The last Bellator 134 was called the British Invasion. If you watch mma Might want to add this site to your favorites http://www.mmauk.net...y/bellatornews/
ROBJETS Icon : (Yesterday, 02:55 AM) There was one of those hour long shows about the upcoming event featuring the fighters the prior week to Bellator 134 and all 4 of the Brits were cocky as hell. Yelling "The British are coming!!!!"
ROBJETS Icon : (Yesterday, 02:57 AM) By the way 135 is tonight if you are interested. I used to watch pretty much all the televised mma now I stick with Bellator and UFC only
ROBJETS Icon : (Yesterday, 03:07 AM) that last link is a UK mma site. Only reason i added it. http://www.sherdog.com/ is pretty much the best mma site on the net for everything mma
JSOTF Icon : (Yesterday, 07:08 AM) I actually live in Germany
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 09:08 PM) Just got done sitting in traffic for 3 hours in Louisville KY.
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 09:09 PM) Unbelievably poor planning by the DOT.
Resize Shouts Area

Page 1 of 1

Waiting On Revis The 2nd half is a great analysis...

#1 User is offline   SecondHandJets Icon

  • Assistant Head Coach
  • Icon
  • Group: Members
  • Posts: 7,489
  • Joined: 28-November 05
  • Gender:Male

  • NFL Team:

  • MLB:

Posted 23 March 2013 - 09:46 PM

Despite all the hyperbole and seemingly daily breathless media stories about how a Revis trade is imminent and how Revis MUST be dealt prior to the 2013 draft and how the Jets are BLOWING IT with their stubbornness in waiting for the right deal, I believe John Idzik is taking just the right approach with Revis. Here's why.

Much digital ink has been spilled detailing the risk the Jets take of having the market for Revis dry up and being left holding the bag, forced to watch Revis play out the string and bring back nothing more than a compensatory 2015 pick after he leaves in 2014. To be sure, there is risk there. The risk is being left with a single 2015 compensatory pick, no higher than a low 3rd round pick, rather than whatever package of picks might be had by trading Revis now. But it may help to quantify ALL the risks in this situation, not just the risk of losing one or two draft picks.

There are two basic possibilities for Revis' health. Either he returns 100% to the Revis of old, or he does not. Based on the best medical data available, returning 100% good as new is the most likely scenario, maybe 70-80% likely, maybe more, but hardly a slam dunk. Of course there are endless variations on the he does not return 100% theme, but in order to keep things manageable in evaluating the risks, let's just say for the sake of argument that he does not return 100% means he is no longer the best CB in football, and there is a nontrivial possibility he is no longer even much above average.

There are 3 basic possibilities as to the end game of where Revis plays football in 2014. He could re-sign with the Jets. He could be traded by the Jets, most likely for a package of draft picks. Or he could play out 2013 and sign with another team in 2014, with the Jets receiving at most a compensatory 3rd round pick.

So let's break this down into the 8 possible outcomes with respect to Revis (with the understanding that the Revis not 100% outcome is somewhat too simplistic)

1. Revis does not come back 100% and is traded for a package of 2013 and/or 2014 picks sooner rather than later. In this case, the Jets come out on top, but it is likely not an overwhelming victory, as the package of picks will likely be less than ideal due to the acquiring team's taking on the substantial risk of Revis' health. The Jets are unlikely to get back a huge haul of picks, but this would be a moderate win for the Jets.

2. Revis does not come back 100% and is traded later, for a package of 2014 or later picks. This would likely be a small win for the Jets. Any such package would probably reflect Revis' on field failure to recover 100%, as well as the reduced ability of any potential acquirer to fit Revis under the cap later in the season. However, the reduction in trade package received would be more than balanced out by the Jets dodging the bullet of re-signing Revis to a mega deal, only to find he is no longer worth it. The Jets recover something for Revis, and his failure to recover 100% means the Jets avoid overpaying on a long term contract for a diminished player.

3. Revis does not come back 100% and plays out the string in 2013, entering 2014 free agency. The Jets do not re-sign him because of his diminished play. This would probably be a small loss for the Jets, as they miss out on any trade package and receive only a compensatory draft pick in return. Still, they dodge the mega deal bullet, making the final outcome not too negative for Gang Green.

4. Revis does not come back 100% but is re-signed early in the process. This is a huge loss for the Jets, as they will be tied to a long term mega deal for a diminished player.

5. Revis comes back 100% and is traded for a package of 2013 and/or 2014 picks sooner rather than later. This would be a big loss for the Jets. No package of picks coming back is likely to come close to compensating for the loss of a healthy Revis.

6. Revis comes back 100% and is traded later, for a package of 2014 or later picks. This would be a huge loss, as a later trade is likely to bring back a lesser package of picks.

7. Revis comes back 100% and is lost to 2014 free agency. The biggest loss of all, for obvious reasons.

8. Revis comes back 100% and is re-signed by the Jets. This would be a big win for the Jets, as they lock up their only HOF caliber player for years to come.

Now, let's look at the possible outcomes by time period. If the Jets deal Revis quickly (scenarios number 1 and 5), it results in either a small chance of a moderate win or a large chance of a big loss for the Jets. Since the odds favor 100% recovery, the big loss is substantially more likely than the moderate win. So it would seem moving Revis quickly is not a good choice unless the Jets get bowled over by a huge trade offer.

If the Jets deal Revis later (scenarios#2 and 6), the Jets could achieve either a small chance of a small win or a large chance of a huge loss. Odds are in favor of the huge loss, making this choice even less appealing than trading him quickly.

If the Jets do not trade Revis at all (scenarios #3, 4, 7 and 8), the Jets have a small chance of a small loss (#3); a small chance of a huge loss (#4); a large chance of a huge loss (#7); and a large chance of a huge win (#8). However, if the Jets do not trade Revis, scenarios #4 and 7 are largely avoidable. If Revis is not healthy, all the Jets have to do is wait and evaluate him as the months progress to avoid the huge problem of re-signing a diminished Revis. And if Revis does come back 100%, as long as he shows it in 2013 the Jets will be in excellent position to evaluate him and pay him whatever it will take to avoid the huge loss of losing a healthy Revis to free agency. So while 2 of the 4 scenarios involved in not trading Revis are worst case type scenarios, they are in fact rather easily avoided, leaving only #3, a small chance of a small loss, and #8, a large chance of a huge win.

Given the various scenarios above, I would argue that the least risky move for the Jets, somewhat counterintuitively, is to let Revis play out the year and only re-sign him if he is returned to 100% health. Now of course, the wisdom of risking losing Revis to free agency has to be taken into account. However, the Jets are in position to have large amounts of cap space in 2014 and will have exclusive negotiating rights with Revis until mid March 2014, so the chances of getting a deal done are extremely high if the Jets are willing to pony up the cash. It then boils down to, should the Jets be willing to pony up the cash for a healthy Revis? I would argue almost certainly yes. Here's why.

It is probably no surprise to many that by 2014 the Jets will have substantial cap space available, more than enough to sign a healthy Darrelle Revis to a mega deal. What may be less well known is just how much cap space is available by 2015, only 2 short years away. In 2015 the Jets have only 10 players under contract, including, for the time being, Mark Sanchez and Santonio Holmes. Assuming those two players will be cut by the 2014 season, the Jets will have only 8 players under contract for a total cap number of about $34 Million. That's right, assuming Holmes and Sanchez will be gone by then, the Jets are currently $90 Million under the 2015 cap. Now, that will obviously change between now and then. For one thing, there will be 3 draft classes accounting for approximately 20 players and $20 Million in cap space by the time the 2015 season begins. That brings us to 28 players on the roster and still $70 Million in cap space.


Who are the Jets going to spend all that cap space on? There are only 2 choices. We can spend it internally, on extensions to players currently on the roster. Or we can spend it on outside free agents.

Let's look for the moment at internal options. On the entire Jets roster, there are maybe 9 players that could possibly be good enough to spend much on in terms of extensions: Brick, Mangold, Cromartie, Wilkerson, Coples, Hill , Kerley, Ellis and Davis. But Brick and Mangold will both be 32 by the end of the 2015 season, and Cro will join them 3 months later, making them unlikely targets for big money extensions. Hill and Davis are not only unlikely to earn big money contracts by then, they will also not yet be eligible for contract extensions, as is also the case with Coples. That leaves Ellis, Wilkerson and Kerley. As much as we all like Kerley, we can probably agree it is unlikely he will earn a huge money extension in 2015. He's good, but he's not THAT good. Ellis is even less likely, both because of the low cost position he plays and because he has shown little so far to deserve it. That leaves Wilkerson. Big Wilk is likely to be the first internal contract Idzik extends for big bucks. He is a dominating force, and Idzik would be wise to tie him up for a long time. But what could such an extension cost at the maximum? Maybe $10 million in cap space? That leaves $60 million to be filled up by some mix of Brick, Mangold, Cro, Ellis, Kerley, some mix of outside free agents, and possibly Revis. It is difficult to imagine Idzik tying up more than $25 Million or so, and likely considerably less, on the five internal guys. So that leaves at least $35 Million, and likely considerably more, for Revis and outside free agents.

Now consider this. We are for purposes of this discussion dealing with a healthy Revis. Ask yourself, who would you rather spend your money on , a healthy Revis or some outside free agent? Sure, if a franchise QB were to make it to unrestricted free agency you'd have to value him over Revis. But how likely is that? And who else would you rather spend your money on? Just for comparison's sake, consider the 2013 free agent class. Is there a single player there you would rather pay big bucks to than a healthy Revis? Is anyone even close? A healthy Revis would still be in his prime. How often is a hall of fame talent in his prime available in free agency? What are the odds one would be in 2015? I would guess very low indeed.

Still, many object, you simply don't tie up franchise QB money on a CB. Well, maybe. But consider this. Even if the Jets find a franchise QB in the draft as early as 2013, they wouldn't be paying him any real money until 2017 at the earliest. So we couldn't spend the money on a franchise QB even if we wanted to. And interestingly enough, that timetable dovetails very nicely with a potential 5 year contract extension for Revis. Even if you make him the highest paid defensive player in the game, you can frontload the contract so that most of the money is paid in 2014 through 2016, with large salaries in 2017 and 2018 tied to performance bonuses paid only if he remains playing at a high level. The Jets then pay him the most money when he is still relatively young and at the top of his game, and when they have enormous amounts of cap space to afford it.

The Jets will not have an expensive QB to soak up cap space until 2017 at the earliest. Most of the best players on the team will not be likely to get long term extensions at high cap figures. John Idzik is not likely to go on a huge spending spree signing tons of big name free agents to expensive long term deals. And even in the unlikely event he were to do so, it is even more unlikely any such free agents will be more worthy of an expensive long term contract than Revis. The conclusion that makes the most sense, if Revis is healthy, is to pay the man, whatever it takes, even if it makes him the highest paid defensive player in football.

The Jets so far are playing a waiting game with Revis. I don't know if they plan on continuing to wait and only trade him if presented with an overwhelming offer, but I do think that is likely the best and least risky choice. Every possible scenario involves risk for the Jets. But I believe the least risky course of action is to wait and see how his recovery goes. The potential benefit of retaining a healthy Revis far outweighs the potential loss of draft picks obtainable in a trade. Wait and see, and if he is healthy, sign him up. I think it's the best course of action. Perhaps Idzik does too. And if he does, it would explain why the Jets seem in no rush to do anything just yet. Maybe good things will come to those who wait.
0

#2 User is offline   RetireChrebet Icon

  • Line Coach
  • Icon
  • Group: Members
  • Posts: 594
  • Joined: 30-March 06
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:NV
  • Interests:Football, mma, yanks, basketball

  • NFL Team:

  • MLB:

Posted 24 March 2013 - 10:48 AM

Once again outstanding write up shj
0

#3 User is offline   HurricaneJet32 Icon

  • Assistant Head Coach
  • Icon
  • Group: Members
  • Posts: 6,703
  • Joined: 30-March 05
  • Location:New York

  • NFL Team:

  • MLB:

Posted 24 March 2013 - 11:32 AM

The Only flaw is how do the Jets acquire the franchise QB they are talking about? Unless the Jets plan on being the worst team in the NFL, they are going to need ammunition to trade up for that franchise QB. That's where the trade of Revis comes in...and where the real value comparison of elite QB vs elite CB has to be made.
Posted Image
0

#4 User is offline   SecondHandJets Icon

  • Assistant Head Coach
  • Icon
  • Group: Members
  • Posts: 7,489
  • Joined: 28-November 05
  • Gender:Male

  • NFL Team:

  • MLB:

Posted 24 March 2013 - 06:33 PM

View PostRetireChrebet, on 24 March 2013 - 11:48 AM, said:

Once again outstanding write up shj


I didn't write that. I copy/pasted. But thanks.
0

#5 User is offline   Smedsthejet Icon

  • Assistant Head Coach
  • Icon
  • Group: Moderator
  • Posts: 8,275
  • Joined: 10-April 05
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:London, England

  • NFL Team:

  • MLB:

Posted 25 March 2013 - 02:38 PM

View PostHurricaneJet32, on 24 March 2013 - 04:32 PM, said:

The Only flaw is how do the Jets acquire the franchise QB they are talking about? Unless the Jets plan on being the worst team in the NFL, they are going to need ammunition to trade up for that franchise QB. That's where the trade of Revis comes in...and where the real value comparison of elite QB vs elite CB has to be made.



And even if they do acquire a QB at the top of an upcoming draft, how can you be certain he'll be an elite passer?
0

Page 1 of 1


Fast Reply

  

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users