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azjetfan Icon : (17 August 2014 - 01:35 PM) Is anyone else as concerned as I am about the secondary?
azjetfan Icon : (17 August 2014 - 01:36 PM) I know it's preseason and all but even with Milliner in on the first game we gave up a TD on the first drive to the Colts
azjetfan Icon : (17 August 2014 - 01:37 PM) Patterson looked like me out there and Wilson got torched last night
Smedsthejet Icon : (17 August 2014 - 02:26 PM) Concerned about the right side of the OLine too - too many penalties and Giacomini wasn't that much better than against the Colts when he was poor
SackExchange71 Icon : (17 August 2014 - 02:31 PM) Imo i still think howard is better then giacomini..Wish they never let him walk.Giacomini had alot of flags in seattle also
azjetfan Icon : (18 August 2014 - 09:33 AM) Howard recieved a huge contract in Oakland. Way over his actual value.
azjetfan Icon : (18 August 2014 - 10:08 AM) So did we make a trade for a CB yet?
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (18 August 2014 - 03:51 PM) Milliner did suffer a high ankle sprain, that sucks. could linger all year
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (18 August 2014 - 03:52 PM) I think Patterson sucked vs the Colts because he was injured, which he always is.
Mr_Jet Icon : (18 August 2014 - 06:49 PM) As much as people criticized Tannanbaum for spending too much. It's starting to look like Idzik is going to be too cheap.
Mr_Jet Icon : (18 August 2014 - 06:52 PM) You get what you pay for and when you let quality players go because you don't want to pay them, this is what happens. You're left with scrub players.
azjetfan Icon : (18 August 2014 - 07:55 PM) I'm still on board with the Idzik plan. Even with Revis and Revis we still are not going to the SB this year. But the down time sucks. If Milliner comes back healthy by week 3 or so we should be fine.
Mr_Jet Icon : (18 August 2014 - 08:18 PM) Regardless of our SB chances this year or next year. If Idzik keeps acting like a cheapskate and continues to let quality players go, we won't have to worry about winning much of anything this decade.
azjetfan Icon : (18 August 2014 - 09:36 PM) He wants to build through the draft. Not blow the bank on FA. I get what your saying but there is a balance and right now we are not one or two pieces away.
Mr_Jet Icon : (18 August 2014 - 11:00 PM) It's not about being one or two pieces away. It's about keeping the good pieces you have and building upon that.
Mr_Jet Icon : (18 August 2014 - 11:04 PM) But there is no sense in trying to build through the draft if he's only going to end up letting the good players he picks up go in FA after a few years. All because he wants to do things on the cheap.
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (19 August 2014 - 07:02 AM) FIRE IDZIK
azjetfan Icon : (19 August 2014 - 08:33 AM) out side of Revis who left we should have kept?
azjetfan Icon : (19 August 2014 - 08:34 AM) The Revis deal sucks but $16 million was too much for a CB and once he was gone he was not coming back.
Mr_Jet Icon : (19 August 2014 - 11:00 AM) Matt Slauson
azjetfan Icon : (19 August 2014 - 01:00 PM) Eh. I think with our current cap situation we will be able to retain guys like Wilkerson and whomever we want to keep. We are in a good position right now.
Mr_Jet Icon : (19 August 2014 - 01:49 PM) Time will tell.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (19 August 2014 - 02:00 PM) landed revis abck. got DRC, nope we take patterson who got owned and always hurt. milner always hurt. 3rd round CB done for season. were gonna get passed on all day
azjetfan Icon : (19 August 2014 - 02:44 PM) Yea the DRC bit makes me iffy
Jetsfan115 Icon : (19 August 2014 - 03:35 PM) better then patterson
azjetfan Icon : (19 August 2014 - 05:45 PM) No I mean the fact that he whiffed on him.
azjetfan Icon : (19 August 2014 - 05:46 PM) I'm not saying Idzik is perfect. I just like the direction we are heading. It's going to take some patience.
RetireChrebet Icon : (19 August 2014 - 06:27 PM) I like how our lack of secondary is the hot topic right now. The bigger issue is we still will not be able to throw the ball. We are not going to do much of anything regardless until we get a QB. Sorry for being so negative just my honest opinion.
RetireChrebet Icon : (19 August 2014 - 06:29 PM) With that said I think our running game with CJ and Powell will be top 10 or somewhere around there
Jetsfan115 Icon : (19 August 2014 - 06:35 PM) i have faith that if geno messes up that vick can come in and do well. but i have 0 faith in our secondary right now which has been our strong point for the past 4 years or so
MikeGangGree... Icon : (19 August 2014 - 07:35 PM) I agree 115. but the one thing is Rex has done some good things in the past with shitty DBs and still had a solid D going back to his years in BAL
MikeGangGree... Icon : (19 August 2014 - 07:37 PM) Corey Ivy CB
36 Jim Leonhard SS/PR
43 Haruki Nakamura FS
25 Evan Oglesby CB
20 Ed Reed FS
22 Samari Rolle CB
39 Daren Stone FS
41 Frank Walker CB
31 Fabian Washington in 2008
MikeGangGree... Icon : (19 August 2014 - 07:39 PM) Reed is a HOF but Rolle was way past his prime
MikeGangGree... Icon : (19 August 2014 - 07:41 PM) SNOOPY BOWL FRIDAY!!!
MikeGangGree... Icon : (19 August 2014 - 07:41 PM) WOOOOOOOOOOOOO
azjetfan Icon : (19 August 2014 - 08:26 PM) I assume we will pick up a guy after the cuts happen.
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (19 August 2014 - 10:14 PM) we'll see but I think we see better QB play than we have in a while.
518-JeTS-FaN Icon : (Yesterday, 08:54 AM) disgusted with my local programming, instead of jets and giants they are airing the raiders vs packers..wtf
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Yesterday, 09:23 AM) Glad I don't live up there anymore haha
ganggreen2003 Icon : (Yesterday, 06:59 PM) The JETS are #6 in the Forbes List for most franchise value
ganggreen2003 Icon : (Yesterday, 06:59 PM) The Buffalo Jills are #31 and the Miami Dolphags are #16 respectively
ganggreen2003 Icon : (Yesterday, 07:00 PM) The JETS are worth $1.8 billion
jet-man Icon : (Yesterday, 10:03 PM) that's less than the clippers
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Today, 01:07 PM) I'm very excited with the amount of preseason touchdowns the Jets have
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Today, 03:21 PM) FIRE IDZIK
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Bernanke Dares You To Buy Stocks

#1 User is offline   azjetfan Icon

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Posted 24 May 2013 - 02:01 PM

Any of you who have 401Ks that are stock based (especially those from former jobs) or and stocks may want to sit with your advisor or get one.

Quote

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated this week the message he has been sending for months about interest rates, the economy and the stock market.

Oh, it was couched in rhetoric and Fed-speak, but his message to average investors came through loud and clear: “I dare you to invest in stocks.”

No, Bernanke did not use those words, but the Fed’s actions and the chatter around them make that message unmistakable.

Combine an interest-rate environment where savers get virtually nothing with a stock market at all-time highs and a general nervousness about what will happen to that market when the Fed finally stops stepping in to prop up the economy and you have to wonder if investors have the nerve to throw more money at stocks.

Then add in Bernanke’s hint that the Fed’s rate of bond purchases could slow “in the next few meetings” and he just double-dog dared you to put more money in the market, knowing that the market will react to the end of quantitative easing the way most of us respond to food poisoning.

This reaction could be short-lived, however, and by floating that trial balloon this week, Bernanke may have been testing the waters, trying to see just how much the market reacts. The more it reacts now —— the more the big institutions start to anticipate a change in policy and price it into their plans — the less likely it will react with some long-running shock when the real moment arrives.

Plenty of average investors have taken Bernanke’s dare, which has simply grown stronger and more brash since the financial crisis of 2008. That said, while statistics show money flowing into equities, most of that has been from big institutions, and there hasn’t necessarily been some huge outflow from the fixed-income side of things, so there are a lot of people who haven’t responded to his actions yet.

“The majority of individual investors aren’t biting,” said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for BankRate.com. “In April, Bankrate.com found 76% of Americans are not more inclined to invest in the stock market now, despite record low interest rates.”

For the investors who are in, Bernanke’s dare is something they had already factored in. For the rest of the investing public, they’re balancing all of the worries that have kept them out until now, most notably balancing the idea of a market at record highs with all of the conditions that make them nervous that a correction — or something much worse — is coming.

“You don’t want to be in or out based on emotions or flows, but on fundamentals,” said Barbara Marcin, manager of the Gabelli Dividend Growth fund (GBCIX) . “The overall fundamentals of the market are mediocre right now, you can’t get too excited. So while the Federal Reserve has intended to hold the risk-free rate to practically nothing to offer investors no choice but to invest in stocks if they want a return … the average individual hasn’t poured in.”

Bloomberg Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a Joint Economic Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, May 22, 2013.
“Traditionally, the market doesn’t form a good top until everybody is in, and that certainly hasn’t happened yet, but anyone who is getting in now has missed a tremendous run and may be getting in mostly because they feel that they have no real choice because they can’t get a real return anywhere but the market,” she added.

While it’s easy to find analysts touting the market’s solid prospects, investors are still having a tough time getting over the market’s travails of the last decade-plus. Cyclical swings don’t just batter account statements, they damage people’s confidence to stay in the market; it’s hard to stay invested — or even be invested — in a market that delivers its long-term returns in such an uneven way.

And yet for individuals, capturing the long-term return is the point.

No one has a good answer on how to do that without taking Bernanke up on the dare.

“Individual investors are starting to come into the market some, which I hate to see now that the market is at a high,” said Jeffrey Hirsch, co-author of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. “It would have been better last fall, when we had a major buy signal, or at some other time. But there’s always going to be a time that might be better, the problem is that if you just missed the last good time to get in the market, how do you know you will recognize the next ‘best time.’

“With the Fed providing a tailwind of liquidity,” he added, “I don’t think there will be a downdraft until Bernanke takes the punch bowl away. … But investors who want to take a chance now need to keep perspective on the risk versus the reward.”

Clearly, balancing risk requires diversification, not going all-or-nothing on Bernanke’s wager. It also means looking at the market not entirely in terms of percentages, but in real-dollar terms.

Hirsch noted that an investor with $10,000 looking to gain a 5% return is talking about adding $500 in annual returns compared with keeping the money on the sidelines. The discrepancy gets a bit bigger when adjusted for inflation.

“The question is whether that $500 is going to make it for you,” he said, “because if it’s not — and you’re too nervous to be in the market — you could still find yourself better off if you save more, or change your spending or doing something else that lets you invest more comfortably.”

Comfort is something the current market is not giving investors, even as it continues to play around with new highs. Investing into discomforting times — though historically profitable — is hard.

Ben Bernanke knows that.

If you’re not going to take his dare, planning around it is crucial. And if you are going to take him up on the challenge, you won’t want to be the last one to do it, because someone is going to wind up losing in this challenge, and it is most likely to be the ones who only accept Bernanke’s gamble right before he changes his provocation to something different.




Chuck Jaffe is a senior MarketWatch columnist. His work appears in many U.S. newspapers. Follow him on Twitter @MKTWJaffe.

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