NYJetsFan.com Forums: Jets Can Contend For Afc East - NYJetsFan.com Forums

Jump to content

Toggle shoutbox NYJETSFAN BANTER

ganggreen2003 Icon : (21 April 2015 - 07:52 PM) Week 5 Bye after the London Game against the Dolphags
NJAzrael71 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 09:17 AM) Rivers is likely going to Tennessee. Would LOVE to have him here but we likely won't make the trade. I'd easily give this year and next year
NJAzrael71 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 09:17 AM) 's first rounder for him
azjetfan Icon : (22 April 2015 - 11:03 AM) IMO that's a steep price. I would swap this years first and a conditional 1st next year. Assuming we make the AFC Championship. That would be a 28-32nd pick. Otherwise a second.
MikeGangGree... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 01:07 PM) Yes 2 1st is a lot
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 01:10 PM) draft is next week, pumped
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 03:02 PM) What are thoughts on getting a RB in round 1? McShay's newest mock has us taking Gurley at 6. I don't think we should take him that high, but if we trade down and he's available I'd love to snag him, ACL and all. He's got an unreal skill set that, once healthy, will translate readily to the NFL. We're not getting a QB this year without paying a king's ransom, and unless we pay a ransom for a top guy I say ignore QB. I don't want us to take a Hundley or Petty type in the 2nd or 3rd round when we need other pieces (edge rush, OL)
azjetfan Icon : (22 April 2015 - 03:09 PM) We can probably get Gordon in the second. I would pass at 6. If QB is not available a pass rusher will be. Our biggest needs are QB Pass rusher and Oline.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 03:34 PM) any thourghts on shane ray? i see a lot of mocks have us drafting him
Jetsfan115 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 04:35 PM) last one i seen had us taking cooper, a RB, and hundley for our 1st 3 picks. not thrilled about that
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 04:38 PM) I don't like Gordon much. Not much of a receiver or blocker, ball security issues, tries to bounce outside too much, stuffed frequently. Gurley is in a league of his own
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 04:39 PM) Ray is pretty highly regarded. I'm betting he, Dupree, and Gregory will be our best options as well as edge rushers at 6, but I think that's too high for any of them
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 04:43 PM) Personally love Cooper, I know WR isn't our biggest need but he may be the most NFL ready guy in the Draft. If we stick to the 6th pick and Fowler, Beasley, and Mariota are gone, Cooper is the guy to get. I'd even take him over Beasley
Jetsfan115 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 05:45 PM) i don't mind cooper. decker isn't number 1 IMO and marshall is expensive and getting old
Jetsfan115 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 05:45 PM) and we never draft a WR high
Jetsfan115 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 05:45 PM) but o-line and QB are huge needs. i wouldn't take o-line 6th overall, but i think our 2nd or 3rd should be o-line
Jetsfan115 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 05:46 PM) we need an OLB as well. if we don't land a QB i'd like to see OLB adn O-line with 2 of our top 3 picks
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 08:16 PM) I agree on Deck, not a true #1 and he's had a checkered history with injuries. Marshall has 2, maybe 3 productive years left, which is why Cooper is an option
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 08:17 PM) And I agree with you on edge rusher & OL being bigger needs, but there really isn't a lineman I'd take at 6
Chadforpresi... Icon : (22 April 2015 - 08:19 PM) So the way I see it, assuming Winston and Mariota are taken when we're at 6, that Fowler and Cooper are our best choices, and I'd be stunned if Fowler drops. I wouldn't be surprised (or upset) if we land Cooper
NJAzrael71 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 08:47 PM) Apparently Tennessee wanted both of Cleveland's #1's and their 2nd rounder to move up to the #2 spot to get Mariota. Still think two 1st rounders are too much for Rivers? He makes us instant contenders and if we make a deep playoff run, it would really be this year's 1st and what equates to basically a 2nd rounder next year.
If not, get Cooper in the 1st and then grab Hundley in the 2nd and O-line in the 3rd.
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:05 PM) I wouldn't be upset with Cooper, hes a stud
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:06 PM) Not sure about Ray. Dupree is rising on the draft boards, ridiculously athletic for his size
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:07 PM) Dupree is 6'4 270 and has a amazing get off and runs a 4.5
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:09 PM) Problem is he doesn't have big sack numbers in college, I rather draft a productive guy high
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:09 PM) Vic Beasley is insanely athletic as well and was hugely productive in college, good bet is that Beasley will be a 10+ sack guy in the NFL
NJAzrael71 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:12 PM) Beasley should be a stud but he gets caught up hand fighting if he doesn't beat his guy quickly. He'll likely end up as an OLB but we'll see
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (22 April 2015 - 10:15 PM) He'd be a good fit in our defense, because we could use that speed guy on the outside
Chadforpresi... Icon : (23 April 2015 - 06:27 AM) I'd love Rivers, but we should be able to get him without paying 2 first rounders
Chadforpresi... Icon : (23 April 2015 - 06:29 AM) Lot of buzz about Dupree going top 10, most mocks I see have us getting either Ray or Dupree at 6. I prefer Dupree, like you said insane athlete for his size
Chadforpresi... Icon : (23 April 2015 - 06:30 AM) I like Beasley as well but I have a strong feeling Washington will snag him. But he is a small dude, it'd be nice if he'd add some bulk (in Clemson reportedly played around 230)
Chaos Icon : (23 April 2015 - 10:11 AM) @ArifHasanNFL

.@LanceZierlein says on http://sports790.com that Shane Ray will need surgery on foot, 5 months recovery. "Could drop out of first"
Chaos Icon : (23 April 2015 - 10:14 AM) this should change up the top 10
Chadforpresi... Icon : (23 April 2015 - 12:16 PM) Damn that's big. If he drops out of round 1 that could be a massive bargain for whoever gets him round 2. Dupree now looks more like the edge rusher we'd get at 6
MikeGangGree... Icon : (24 April 2015 - 09:40 PM) TEH RANGERS
santana Icon : (24 April 2015 - 11:32 PM) TEH WIZ
Jetsman05 Icon : (Yesterday, 06:57 AM) Teh Suarez
Jetsman05 Icon : (Yesterday, 06:58 AM) Vic Beasley is all speed. No moves, no power. Straight up the field. Could have some big games, then nothing in the next
Jetsman05 Icon : (Yesterday, 06:59 AM) If we don't get Mariota, we should be looking at Schreff or trading down, IMO.
Jetsman05 Icon : (Yesterday, 06:59 AM) A lot of good edge rushers in this draft... I wouldn't want to take Dupree that high.
Jetsman05 Icon : (Yesterday, 07:00 AM) Until next time fellas!
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 01:19 PM) Helloooooooooo
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 01:19 PM) Bueller
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 01:33 PM) Manish says the Jets should trade down and draft Andrus Peat round 1
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 04:39 PM) Even an idiot can say something that's right every now and then
Resize Shouts Area

Page 1 of 1

Jets Can Contend For Afc East ESPN Insider

#1 User is offline   Chaos Icon

  • D Coordinator
  • Icon
  • Group: Assistant Admin
  • Posts: 3,157
  • Joined: 30-March 05
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 April 2014 - 08:03 AM

Quote

Jets can contend for AFC East

Upgrade at QB, consistently strong defense can help Jets challenge Pats:

The NFL is middle school chemistry. You have variables and controls. The variables create different outcomes, while the control is that unchanging element, the thing you can point to and say, "Well, we know that didn't cause the fire." And in a league where constant turnover is law, few controls exist. Bill Belichick is a control. Peyton Manning is a control. The controls allows at least some level of certainty. It's something the New York Jets have lacked -- at least on the surface.

Consider the coach. Rex Ryan's persona seems to dovetail with the mixed outcomes -- near-Super Bowl seasons, the lows of last place -- and it's all tattooed across the back page. The overall mixed results, a 42-38 mark in New York, would imply Rex is a source of instability.

But when you dig deeper, you realize it's the opposite. Ryan is one of the NFL's true controls. What he does -- what he truly controls on a football field -- never really changes. Ryan controls defenses, and his defenses are routinely excellent. And this year, that could be enough for the Jets to legitimately challenge for the AFC East title.

Consider:

Ryan destroys passing games: It's a passing league, but not against Ryan. From 2009 to 2013, Jets defenses allowed the NFL's lowest QBR, at 40.6, with no real spike of a bad year. And it goes beyond that. Ryan's Baltimore defenses did the same, allowing an absurdly low 33.1 mark from 2006-2008. Over a nine-year period, Ryan's defense turns the average NFL QB into Chad Henne.

Ryan wrecks consistent yardage: With the Jets, his defenses are second in the NFL in yards allowed over his tenure. With Baltimore, he also was second during his four-year run as defensive coordinator.

Ryan is consistent: Using one of Football Outsiders' key metrics, Ryan's average defensive DVOA (explained here) over nine years is sixth. His average total defense is sixth. When your average is that high, you end up with this fact: Ryan has never had a below-average defense. His worst defensive DVOA was 14th. His worst YPG allowed is 17th. In nine years of controlling NFL defenses, only once was Ryan's unit even average. He's a defensive MacGyver -- give him an average D-line, a match and a roll of duct tape and he'll escape in good shape more often than not.

The only other NFL coach to run defenses as effectively as Ryan over the past nine years is Pittsburgh's Dick LeBeau. Ryan has been similarly dominant; it's his quarterbacks who have been the variable that ruins things. And it's the reason the 2014 Jets can challenge for first place in the AFC East, even against a healthy Patriots squad.

The value of average

Pittsburgh has had Ben Roethlisberger with LeBeau around, and that combination is why they have three Super Bowl appearances in that time, two of them wins. The narrative could say Big Ben has been great, but most know better. Pittsburgh's defenses have been great, Roethlisberger has been situationally great, and has mostly been pretty good overall.

Over the QBR era -- 2006 though 2013 -- among QBs with 1,500 attempts, Roethlisberger is 10th in QBR. No. 11 is Michael Vick. Now, Vick is no Big Ben, but much of that is health, and time away from football, not performance.

Now consider that over Ryan's Jets tenure, the team QBR -- combining the likes of Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Matt Simms, etc. -- is a terrifying 36.1, good for 29th in the NFL. Among teams that are in the bottom 10 in QBR over that period, the Jets are the only team with a winning record. At 42-38, the Jets are 16 wins better than Jacksonville, which has the next most awful QB performance in that time.

And it goes beyond that: Over the past nine years, only twice has Ryan had a QB who was at or above average in QBR:

In 2006, Steve McNair was sixth. The Ravens went 13-3.
In 2009, Sanchez was 17th (his highest finish). The Jets went 11-5.

The single greatest spikes in team improvement in recent years haven't come through brilliant quarterbacking, they've come through merely OK quarterbacking. A team with terrible QB play simply becomes average in that category. In 2011 the Colts minus Manning were a disaster at QB. In 2012, Andrew Luck wasn't brilliant, he was a tick north of league average as a rookie. The Colts had a nine-win jump. In 2012 the Chiefs were awful at QB and won two games. In 2013 they added Alex Smith, who wasn't remotely great, just competent, and they had a nine-win spike. Seattle's jump with the presence of Russell Wilson also qualifies.

It is impossible for the Jets to "spike" in wins, because as long as Ryan is coaching the defense, they'll never really be bad. Last season was proof enough, when they won eight games even as Geno Smith ranked an unpleasant 34th in QBR.

So what must happen now? And why the optimism?

Vick must be ... just average

The issue for Vick is always health. We know he's played 16 games just once. But as I noted recently, Vick is safely an above league-average QB, and he almost always improves the win rates of the teams he plays for:

"Vick's record as a starter is 58-48-1. Going into 2013 (excluding 2009 when Vick sat the bench behind Donovan McNabb in his first year back from a prison sentence), his team's record when he didn't start was 13-30. You can argue that with Vick around teams weren't invested financially in another really good QB in most of those seasons, but it's impossible to argue that Vick hasn't been a significant improvement for his team over any other QB on the roster."

I hardly qualify as a "QB win" pusher, but it is the game's most important position, and when the context is reasonable it matters. When he's on the field, since 2005, Vick hasn't been a star, but he's been something safely better than the Jets have had with a QBR profile similar to a Big Ben or Eli Manning. Those guys stay healthy, for the most part. But if Vick does, evidence shows anything even remotely average sets up Ryan's teams for success.

The weapons upgrade

Improved offensive talent should help. That's why the Jets can't sit still even with the addition of Eric Decker. While Decker brings impressive recent credentials -- he was fifth in the NFL in Pro Football Focus' WR rating in 2013 (which measures how good a QB looked when throwing at him) and second in 2012 -- but the control in that experiment was Peyton Manning, so we can't say for certain Decker is a massive upgrade over, say, the departed Santonio Holmes.

Now the draft must pay dividends. The Jets are in a great position to draft the likes of LSU's Odell Beckham Jr. or USC's Marqise Lee with their first pick at No. 18 overall, and they shouldn't stop there. This is one of the best drafts at the wide receiver position in recent memory, and an added pick there or at tight end would be wise. (This week Mel Kiper suggested the Jets add two pass-catchers with their first two picks.) The recent addition of Jacoby Ford is more window dressing than impact, though Ford's speed can be useful. But it's fair to say the Jets need early impact from the draft.

The good news is that's available. As for the running back depth chart, it isn't flush with promise right now (Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory represent the two-deep), but Chris Johnson would be a great change-of-pace solution to pursue following his release from the Titans, as he's the type of explosive runner they haven't had in a while. And the draft offers a lot of depth at the position in the middle and late rounds.

The defense just needs to remain strong

When I asked a few former NFL players who have played for or against Ryan's defenses this week what defines him, I heard a range of answers. Flexible, gets guys to buy in, does an exceptional job of creating in-game scheme counters, and in every case, game planning.

"He is a master game-planner," one said. "If he wants to take away the slot, then he does it. Same goes for a No.1 wide receiver, tight end -- you name it."

What the Jets are certain to take away is any attempt to run against them in 2014. Last season, they held teams to 3.35 yards per attempt, a league-low by a wide margin. And they'll only be better up front, with Muhammad Wilkerson entering Year 4, Damon Harrison and Quinton Coples entering their third NFL seasons, and run-stopping maestro Sheldon Richardson only in Year 2.

The secondary is a concern, but should see improved play from Dee Milliner (in part because he can't be worse than he was early in 2013, not a shock for a rookie) and while neither Dawan Landry nor Antonio Allen is great at safety, a year of playing together could help. But again, the 53.4 QBR the Jets allowed last season was actually the worst of Ryan's tenure, and was balanced by a devastating run defense, which is why the Jets still managed to rank 12th in defensive DVOA. Ryan's now extensive track record points to improvement, even for a defense that was safely above average and, in some areas, dominant.

Ultimately, the Vick health variable seems the likeliest to determine whether the Jets take a step forward, or are merely average. But with the control of Ryan around, that entity that really won't change or let the experiment go too far awry, the Jets really can win just a few more games, making them a true challenger in the AFC East.

0

#2 User is offline   Jetsfan115 Icon

  • Assistant Head Coach
  • Icon
  • Group: Assistant Admin
  • Posts: 23,753
  • Joined: 30-March 05
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Cali

  • NFL Team:

  • MLB:

Posted 08 April 2014 - 10:30 AM

this topic is about a week too late ;)
Get it done MT
Posted Image
0

#3 User is offline   a1elbow2.0 Icon

  • Special Teams
  • Icon
  • Group: Members
  • Posts: 274
  • Joined: 08-August 12

  • NFL Team:

  • MLB:

Posted 10 April 2014 - 11:14 AM

Didn't realise ESPN was still using that stupid TBR.

View PostClemens11, on 12 August 2012 - 01:21 PM, said:

1 int for every 4 tis is a pretty nice ratio to me


Bottomfeeder Tracker: 6-17 vs teams with a winning record.
0

Page 1 of 1


Fast Reply

  

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users