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Jets fresh off the bye prepare to stomp Washington
azjetfan Icon : (08 October 2015 - 03:07 PM) Dolphins have also fired their DC
ROBJETS Icon : (08 October 2015 - 03:24 PM) I am composed. 115 and I may see things differently but he has never pissed me off. He is just trying to make his point of view and I mine nothing more
ROBJETS Icon : (08 October 2015 - 03:25 PM) I just feel the rule is a very bad rule to give the offense the ball back for losing the ball in the endzone because of a batted ball and feel the NFL is far to offense firendly these days thats all
ROBJETS Icon : (08 October 2015 - 03:27 PM) I know many agree with that. I get that many changes have been made to limit things like brain damage and other injuries some season ending and career ending but defenses cant play hard like they used to and pathetic calls on defenses have ruinbed many games.
ROBJETS Icon : (08 October 2015 - 03:29 PM) Thats why brought up the Jets Fish game. The balls were clearly uncatcahable and a light tug on the jersey shouldn't be a pi. Whatever happened to the uncatchable ball rule?"
ROBJETS Icon : (08 October 2015 - 03:33 PM) and as far as that montage I did have ESPN on for 2 hours after the game because I wanted to see all the reactions and get a clear understanding of this old rule and I never saw a bunch of clips where flags were thrown for the play in question. So I asked for proof. If it was on ESPN it wasn't on ESPN1 maybe ESPN 2 ,3 or news. Its not wrong or brutal to ask for proof when he stated he saw it on ESPN I had the channel on and didn't see what he claimed he saw and still haven't seen any video of proof of his claims
ROBJETS Icon : (08 October 2015 - 03:36 PM) But as I said not mad at all. 115 and I are cool and always have been Ive never been mad at him in anyway. This is a fan forum and we dispute. If we all agreed on everything there would be no point of the forum. Disputes on stats and calls make things interesting, and makes each of use see things from different points of view
Jetsfan115 Icon : (08 October 2015 - 03:56 PM) it was on whatever channel the game itself came on
Jetsfan115 Icon : (08 October 2015 - 03:56 PM) and for the record I don't have any issue with anything rob said. I just disagree with it
Jetsfan115 Icon : (08 October 2015 - 03:57 PM) I do think rules are too offense friendly, but I think in this case, when someone blatently breaks a rule ti should be punished
Jetsfan115 Icon : (08 October 2015 - 03:57 PM) but then again pacman got away with ripping off a players helmet and didn't get a penatly
Jetsfan115 Icon : (08 October 2015 - 03:57 PM) refs need to be more consistent
ROBJETS Icon : (08 October 2015 - 09:04 PM) Hell yeah! Pac 12 AZ State Jaelen Strong. Not a Texans fan but and dont watch a ton of college football but do watch the Pac 12 for football and basketball growing up in Phoenix and also a Suns fan and liking the Cardinals since they moved to AZ .Was a Jets fan though before Az got the cardinals . Strong was really good for AZ State.
ROBJETS Icon : (08 October 2015 - 09:05 PM) Havent studied up on strong for the Texans but will have to since the announcers said he hasnt played much. I want to know if he has been injured or not performing. He has good hands and size
ROBJETS Icon : (08 October 2015 - 09:08 PM) I actually was debating on starting the Colts witth Jets D on bye week glad I dropped them. Wasn't much to choose from. Some decent defenses but bad matchups. took a chance on the Jags this week hoping they can shut down Tampa
ROBJETS Icon : (08 October 2015 - 09:10 PM) Oh and thanks for that 115. people took it wrong. we were simply debating our opinions with passion for our love of football with no animosity and people took it wrong. Easy to misunderstand texts
Jetsfan115 Icon : (09 October 2015 - 11:21 AM) yeah people don't realize it's ok to disagree on the internet without it being 2 people hating each other lol
RetireChrebet Icon : (09 October 2015 - 12:30 PM) I think if the defense touches a live football in the end zone, period, it should be ruled a touchback.
RetireChrebet Icon : (09 October 2015 - 12:30 PM) Talking about fumbles, not passes, of course.
RetireChrebet Icon : (09 October 2015 - 12:31 PM) That's the simplest way to combat any confusion about the rule.
RetireChrebet Icon : (09 October 2015 - 12:32 PM) If you don't like that rule, then don't fumble in the end zone your trying to score in.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (09 October 2015 - 02:21 PM) it's gotta be possession.
RetireChrebet Icon : (09 October 2015 - 04:03 PM) I know what the rule is. In proposing a rule change. Evidently, the way it is now is too complicated. If a defense touches a live football in the end zone it should be their ball at the 20. Problem solved.
RetireChrebet Icon : (09 October 2015 - 04:03 PM) I'm*
Jetsfan115 Icon : (09 October 2015 - 04:44 PM) what if the defense touches it whole trying tor ecover but doens't get it and the offense jumps on it first?
ROBJETS Icon : (09 October 2015 - 05:56 PM) You may not agree with it 115 but the way I look at it is if the offense recovered it it would be a touchdown. Its ok for a punter, qb, or rb ,etc. to deliberately take a safety so they dont get a punt blocked for a td or to avoid giving the ball up on the 1-2 yard line giving up a near definite td. An also those safeties by the O sometimes saves the game because giving up 2 instead of 7 keeps the game in reach at times.
ROBJETS Icon : (09 October 2015 - 06:03 PM) Thats why I disagree with the rule. The offense gets the breaks of only giving up 2 points on O. but when fumbkling into the endzone and out it is always ruled a touchback even if the defender or O tries to recoiver the ball in the endzone and the ball goes out of bounds. Thats why I think batting the ball out of the endzone should still be a touchback instead of giving the ball back to the O that fumbled the ball into the endzone. Just dont feel that they should get a chance to get the ball back for an almost automatic td when they fumbled into the endzone just because of a batted ball. Its something that could litterally cause the defense that made a great play to lose simply because of a vbatted ball. Yet if they try to recover it it and it goes out its a touchback. I just feel its to game changing and a bad rule to give the O the ball back after they messed up bad because that play was the difference between a win and loss. The O fumbles so giving the O the ball back is like saying your great def play was worthless.
ROBJETS Icon : (09 October 2015 - 06:04 PM) Just feel that its a bad rule since it would have almost definitely changed the game winner.
ROBJETS Icon : (09 October 2015 - 06:08 PM) Just to many good rules for the O these days and to many bad rules for the D. this isn't college where offense dominates in most games. In the pros I want to see an equal playing field and not how its become so offensive friendly. Our own Jets have lost a lot of games on defensive calls alone after stopping the O. 3rd down and a mile and a penalty cost a 1st down and in many cases the game for us. Basically that's why I'm against the rule. I want an equal playing field in the pros nothing more.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (09 October 2015 - 06:26 PM) Offense is in control of the ball, they should have that option. Both teams get to play offense it's not unfiar
Jetsfan115 Icon : (09 October 2015 - 06:26 PM) a major defensive play is more game changing then a major offensive play too.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (09 October 2015 - 06:26 PM) turnover ratio is better linked to win/loss then any other stat
Jetsfan115 Icon : (09 October 2015 - 06:27 PM) even in your case the offense gives up 2 point and posession back with good field position and ball control
ROBJETS Icon : (09 October 2015 - 06:33 PM) Lets just a agree to disagree on this topic. We both see the situation different and neither of us will budge on this. best we just let it go and see if the NFL starts enforcing the rule more or changes it at some point. Either way. All the coaches and players in the league now know the rule so I doubt it will deliberately happen again any time soon....but then again who knows...in the games there are a lot of stupid fouls out of frustration, taunting, etc.
ROBJETS Icon : (09 October 2015 - 06:34 PM) And the fans and officials are now aware of a rule almost no one but the officials knew.
ROBJETS Icon : (09 October 2015 - 06:37 PM) Heck Im upset that we arent 4-0 right now with all thr mistakes against the Eagles and still almost coming back. I feel we need every win we can get especially with the Bills looking decent and always having to deal with the pats every year. Be nice to win the division for once. So tired of seeing the Pats win and get a bye almost every year.
MikeGangGree... Icon : (09 October 2015 - 11:12 PM) Why do the Jets DBs have to talk about the Giants WRs!!? Why can't they just worry about our own team.
MikeGangGree... Icon : (09 October 2015 - 11:13 PM) I think all jets fans remember the last time our DBs talked crap about a Giants WR..
MikeGangGree... Icon : (09 October 2015 - 11:13 PM) The jets should just worry about the Jets!!
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 10:29 AM) jets and giants players hang out all the time
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 10:29 AM) i'm sure they dont care lol
Jetsfan115 Icon : (Yesterday, 11:24 AM) well bills won, we need a win this week to stay inn 2nd
Jetsfan115 Icon : (Yesterday, 11:25 AM) at least miami is pretty much done but we have to compete with NE and buffalo still
Jetsfan115 Icon : (Yesterday, 11:26 AM) as santana said, it's probably all in fun. most of these guys in the NFL are friends with players form other teams. I'm sure some jets/giants players are friends with each other
santana Icon : (Yesterday, 10:31 PM) Vick = $$
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Jets Can Contend For Afc East ESPN Insider

#1 User is offline   Chaos Icon

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 08:03 AM


Jets can contend for AFC East

Upgrade at QB, consistently strong defense can help Jets challenge Pats:

The NFL is middle school chemistry. You have variables and controls. The variables create different outcomes, while the control is that unchanging element, the thing you can point to and say, "Well, we know that didn't cause the fire." And in a league where constant turnover is law, few controls exist. Bill Belichick is a control. Peyton Manning is a control. The controls allows at least some level of certainty. It's something the New York Jets have lacked -- at least on the surface.

Consider the coach. Rex Ryan's persona seems to dovetail with the mixed outcomes -- near-Super Bowl seasons, the lows of last place -- and it's all tattooed across the back page. The overall mixed results, a 42-38 mark in New York, would imply Rex is a source of instability.

But when you dig deeper, you realize it's the opposite. Ryan is one of the NFL's true controls. What he does -- what he truly controls on a football field -- never really changes. Ryan controls defenses, and his defenses are routinely excellent. And this year, that could be enough for the Jets to legitimately challenge for the AFC East title.


Ryan destroys passing games: It's a passing league, but not against Ryan. From 2009 to 2013, Jets defenses allowed the NFL's lowest QBR, at 40.6, with no real spike of a bad year. And it goes beyond that. Ryan's Baltimore defenses did the same, allowing an absurdly low 33.1 mark from 2006-2008. Over a nine-year period, Ryan's defense turns the average NFL QB into Chad Henne.

Ryan wrecks consistent yardage: With the Jets, his defenses are second in the NFL in yards allowed over his tenure. With Baltimore, he also was second during his four-year run as defensive coordinator.

Ryan is consistent: Using one of Football Outsiders' key metrics, Ryan's average defensive DVOA (explained here) over nine years is sixth. His average total defense is sixth. When your average is that high, you end up with this fact: Ryan has never had a below-average defense. His worst defensive DVOA was 14th. His worst YPG allowed is 17th. In nine years of controlling NFL defenses, only once was Ryan's unit even average. He's a defensive MacGyver -- give him an average D-line, a match and a roll of duct tape and he'll escape in good shape more often than not.

The only other NFL coach to run defenses as effectively as Ryan over the past nine years is Pittsburgh's Dick LeBeau. Ryan has been similarly dominant; it's his quarterbacks who have been the variable that ruins things. And it's the reason the 2014 Jets can challenge for first place in the AFC East, even against a healthy Patriots squad.

The value of average

Pittsburgh has had Ben Roethlisberger with LeBeau around, and that combination is why they have three Super Bowl appearances in that time, two of them wins. The narrative could say Big Ben has been great, but most know better. Pittsburgh's defenses have been great, Roethlisberger has been situationally great, and has mostly been pretty good overall.

Over the QBR era -- 2006 though 2013 -- among QBs with 1,500 attempts, Roethlisberger is 10th in QBR. No. 11 is Michael Vick. Now, Vick is no Big Ben, but much of that is health, and time away from football, not performance.

Now consider that over Ryan's Jets tenure, the team QBR -- combining the likes of Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Matt Simms, etc. -- is a terrifying 36.1, good for 29th in the NFL. Among teams that are in the bottom 10 in QBR over that period, the Jets are the only team with a winning record. At 42-38, the Jets are 16 wins better than Jacksonville, which has the next most awful QB performance in that time.

And it goes beyond that: Over the past nine years, only twice has Ryan had a QB who was at or above average in QBR:

In 2006, Steve McNair was sixth. The Ravens went 13-3.
In 2009, Sanchez was 17th (his highest finish). The Jets went 11-5.

The single greatest spikes in team improvement in recent years haven't come through brilliant quarterbacking, they've come through merely OK quarterbacking. A team with terrible QB play simply becomes average in that category. In 2011 the Colts minus Manning were a disaster at QB. In 2012, Andrew Luck wasn't brilliant, he was a tick north of league average as a rookie. The Colts had a nine-win jump. In 2012 the Chiefs were awful at QB and won two games. In 2013 they added Alex Smith, who wasn't remotely great, just competent, and they had a nine-win spike. Seattle's jump with the presence of Russell Wilson also qualifies.

It is impossible for the Jets to "spike" in wins, because as long as Ryan is coaching the defense, they'll never really be bad. Last season was proof enough, when they won eight games even as Geno Smith ranked an unpleasant 34th in QBR.

So what must happen now? And why the optimism?

Vick must be ... just average

The issue for Vick is always health. We know he's played 16 games just once. But as I noted recently, Vick is safely an above league-average QB, and he almost always improves the win rates of the teams he plays for:

"Vick's record as a starter is 58-48-1. Going into 2013 (excluding 2009 when Vick sat the bench behind Donovan McNabb in his first year back from a prison sentence), his team's record when he didn't start was 13-30. You can argue that with Vick around teams weren't invested financially in another really good QB in most of those seasons, but it's impossible to argue that Vick hasn't been a significant improvement for his team over any other QB on the roster."

I hardly qualify as a "QB win" pusher, but it is the game's most important position, and when the context is reasonable it matters. When he's on the field, since 2005, Vick hasn't been a star, but he's been something safely better than the Jets have had with a QBR profile similar to a Big Ben or Eli Manning. Those guys stay healthy, for the most part. But if Vick does, evidence shows anything even remotely average sets up Ryan's teams for success.

The weapons upgrade

Improved offensive talent should help. That's why the Jets can't sit still even with the addition of Eric Decker. While Decker brings impressive recent credentials -- he was fifth in the NFL in Pro Football Focus' WR rating in 2013 (which measures how good a QB looked when throwing at him) and second in 2012 -- but the control in that experiment was Peyton Manning, so we can't say for certain Decker is a massive upgrade over, say, the departed Santonio Holmes.

Now the draft must pay dividends. The Jets are in a great position to draft the likes of LSU's Odell Beckham Jr. or USC's Marqise Lee with their first pick at No. 18 overall, and they shouldn't stop there. This is one of the best drafts at the wide receiver position in recent memory, and an added pick there or at tight end would be wise. (This week Mel Kiper suggested the Jets add two pass-catchers with their first two picks.) The recent addition of Jacoby Ford is more window dressing than impact, though Ford's speed can be useful. But it's fair to say the Jets need early impact from the draft.

The good news is that's available. As for the running back depth chart, it isn't flush with promise right now (Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory represent the two-deep), but Chris Johnson would be a great change-of-pace solution to pursue following his release from the Titans, as he's the type of explosive runner they haven't had in a while. And the draft offers a lot of depth at the position in the middle and late rounds.

The defense just needs to remain strong

When I asked a few former NFL players who have played for or against Ryan's defenses this week what defines him, I heard a range of answers. Flexible, gets guys to buy in, does an exceptional job of creating in-game scheme counters, and in every case, game planning.

"He is a master game-planner," one said. "If he wants to take away the slot, then he does it. Same goes for a No.1 wide receiver, tight end -- you name it."

What the Jets are certain to take away is any attempt to run against them in 2014. Last season, they held teams to 3.35 yards per attempt, a league-low by a wide margin. And they'll only be better up front, with Muhammad Wilkerson entering Year 4, Damon Harrison and Quinton Coples entering their third NFL seasons, and run-stopping maestro Sheldon Richardson only in Year 2.

The secondary is a concern, but should see improved play from Dee Milliner (in part because he can't be worse than he was early in 2013, not a shock for a rookie) and while neither Dawan Landry nor Antonio Allen is great at safety, a year of playing together could help. But again, the 53.4 QBR the Jets allowed last season was actually the worst of Ryan's tenure, and was balanced by a devastating run defense, which is why the Jets still managed to rank 12th in defensive DVOA. Ryan's now extensive track record points to improvement, even for a defense that was safely above average and, in some areas, dominant.

Ultimately, the Vick health variable seems the likeliest to determine whether the Jets take a step forward, or are merely average. But with the control of Ryan around, that entity that really won't change or let the experiment go too far awry, the Jets really can win just a few more games, making them a true challenger in the AFC East.


#2 User is offline   Jetsfan115 Icon

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 10:30 AM

this topic is about a week too late ;)

#3 User is offline   a1elbow2.0 Icon

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 11:14 AM

Didn't realise ESPN was still using that stupid TBR.

View PostClemens11, on 12 August 2012 - 01:21 PM, said:

1 int for every 4 tis is a pretty nice ratio to me

Bottomfeeder Tracker: 6-17 vs teams with a winning record.

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