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ganggreen2003 Icon : (02 March 2015 - 09:34 PM) I think he won't just throw money at players just cause of the name on the back of their jersey
ganggreen2003 Icon : (02 March 2015 - 09:34 PM) TRUST MACCAGNAN!!!!
santana Icon : (02 March 2015 - 09:37 PM) this just in geno smith signs extension for 39 mil
ganggreen2003 Icon : (02 March 2015 - 10:28 PM) :hysterical: yeah and Rex Ryan is not a bozo
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 01:10 PM) Ryan is not a Bozo he is a cartoon character.
Chaos Icon : (Yesterday, 01:15 PM) anyone know anything about CB Kareem Jackson?
Chaos Icon : (Yesterday, 01:15 PM) FA from Houston. Obvious Mac connection.
ganggreen2003 Icon : (Yesterday, 02:33 PM) NO TO MEVIS NO TO MEVIS
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:26 PM) FIRE MACCAGNAN
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:26 PM) FIRE BOWLES
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Yesterday, 03:26 PM) CONSTANT TURNOVER
azjetfan Icon : (Yesterday, 03:43 PM) I think we need to fire more people. Like Justin Beiber
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Yesterday, 04:22 PM) Kareem Jackson is a decent player, I would rather go elsewhere for CB though> He has been a streaky player, some bad seasons some good
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Yesterday, 06:23 PM) THE KNICKS
Chaos Icon : (Yesterday, 06:43 PM) @AdamSchefter: Filed to ESPN: Bills have notified LB Kiko Alonso he is going to be traded to Philadelphia for RB LeSean McCoy. Trade official next week.
Chaos Icon : (Yesterday, 06:43 PM) WOW. Rex is gearing up for ground and pound.
Chaos Icon : (Yesterday, 06:44 PM) Jets can sign Spiller now but they're going to need a new LB. Rex is gunning for David Harris.
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Yesterday, 07:44 PM) Jets should trade Harris to Minnesota for Minnesota for AP
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Yesterday, 07:44 PM) Throw in Ivory/Powell or a pick
ganggreen2003 Icon : (Yesterday, 07:45 PM) Damn they got Shady
ganggreen2003 Icon : (Yesterday, 07:45 PM) Do NOT give up Ivory
ganggreen2003 Icon : (Yesterday, 07:45 PM) Powell ok Ivory HELL NO
ganggreen2003 Icon : (Yesterday, 07:50 PM) Well that definitely opens the door for CJ Spiller to the JETS now that the Jills got Shady
ROBJETS Icon : (Today, 05:12 AM) Spiller is a joke. 99 % of the time he gets tackled for a loss or a 1 or 2 yard gain maximum. He breaks a run here and there. he had one good year in his whole career. their is a reason he is a backup and not the starter. I suggest you guys that believe Spiller has anything to offer go through the play by play game logs. I did and he is horrendous.
ROBJETS Icon : (Today, 05:14 AM) Spiller cannot break a tackle period. I broke down last years game logs of his runs in a thread last year. He isn't even a pass catching rb. Fred Jackson catches most of the running back passes.
ROBJETS Icon : (Today, 05:20 AM) Unless Spiller comes tremendously cheap no thank you. Wouldn't pay more than a one year deal worth 1 million at most. All he has is speed. Not even on Sproles level. His stats are inflated. For instance he has 10 runs in a game and 9 of them are losses are or 1-2 yard runs. Then he breaks one on the outside for 40-70 yards. Not reliable at all. Even when he break one he is guaranteed a td
ROBJETS Icon : (Today, 05:21 AM) Even in his 1200 yard rushing year he only had 6 tds rushing and 2 receiving
ROBJETS Icon : (Today, 05:23 AM) Spiller is only valuable as a special teams player. Period By year 2010 ) tds rshng 1 rcvng 283 yards rshng
ROBJETS Icon : (Today, 05:31 AM) meant 0 tds rushing in 2010, 2011 4 tds 561 yards rushing 2tds receiving, 2012 6tds 1244 rushing 2 tds receiving, 2013 2tds 933 yards rushing 0tds receiving, 2014 0tds 300 yards rushing 1td receiving.
ROBJETS Icon : (Today, 05:41 AM) His stats look decent on paper but if you actually go through the game logs of his career like I did his stats are extremely inflated. For instance one game last year he had 10 attempts for 8 yards another 4 attempts for -4 yards, another 6 attempts for 19 yards, another 10 attempts for 25 yards.Another game he had 12 games for 69 yards but 47 of it was on one play. Point is he sucks as a running back. Who wants a rb that gets stopped 99% of the time and breaks one play fir a long run. We need reliable backs not a slim chance of him breaking one
santana Icon : (Today, 08:06 AM) "NFL released its first 2015 League Year cap report to teams. Teams w/most room: 1) Jaguars $64.058M; 2) Jets $52.901; 3) Raiders $52.598M."
santana Icon : (Today, 08:06 AM) #2 baby
santana Icon : (Today, 08:07 AM) WE DID IT!
santana Icon : (Today, 08:07 AM) thnx idzik
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Today, 08:09 AM) RE-HIRE IDZIK
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Today, 08:10 AM) Well in all fairness, when I think about the Jets I do think about number two
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Today, 08:30 AM) FIRE MACCAGNAN
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (Today, 08:30 AM) The Jaguars hired John Idzik for his expertise in contract negotiating
Chaos Icon : (Today, 08:36 AM) ppl are going to get paid this offseason.
Chaos Icon : (Today, 08:36 AM) so many teams have space
Chaos Icon : (Today, 08:39 AM) eagles have 48M in cap space. Chip is going to go HAM this offseason.
Chaos Icon : (Today, 12:35 PM) @RapSheet: The #Bills have traded for Matt Cassel, the team announced.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (Today, 12:43 PM) rex is gearing up his team
Jetsfan115 Icon : (Today, 12:43 PM) a QB that won't turn it over. 2 stud Rbs for ground and pound and will now start building his defense
azjetfan Icon : (Today, 01:49 PM) McCoys agent said the trade is not final and he hinted that he may not be willing to play there.
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Jets Can Contend For Afc East ESPN Insider

#1 User is offline   Chaos Icon

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 08:03 AM

Quote

Jets can contend for AFC East

Upgrade at QB, consistently strong defense can help Jets challenge Pats:

The NFL is middle school chemistry. You have variables and controls. The variables create different outcomes, while the control is that unchanging element, the thing you can point to and say, "Well, we know that didn't cause the fire." And in a league where constant turnover is law, few controls exist. Bill Belichick is a control. Peyton Manning is a control. The controls allows at least some level of certainty. It's something the New York Jets have lacked -- at least on the surface.

Consider the coach. Rex Ryan's persona seems to dovetail with the mixed outcomes -- near-Super Bowl seasons, the lows of last place -- and it's all tattooed across the back page. The overall mixed results, a 42-38 mark in New York, would imply Rex is a source of instability.

But when you dig deeper, you realize it's the opposite. Ryan is one of the NFL's true controls. What he does -- what he truly controls on a football field -- never really changes. Ryan controls defenses, and his defenses are routinely excellent. And this year, that could be enough for the Jets to legitimately challenge for the AFC East title.

Consider:

Ryan destroys passing games: It's a passing league, but not against Ryan. From 2009 to 2013, Jets defenses allowed the NFL's lowest QBR, at 40.6, with no real spike of a bad year. And it goes beyond that. Ryan's Baltimore defenses did the same, allowing an absurdly low 33.1 mark from 2006-2008. Over a nine-year period, Ryan's defense turns the average NFL QB into Chad Henne.

Ryan wrecks consistent yardage: With the Jets, his defenses are second in the NFL in yards allowed over his tenure. With Baltimore, he also was second during his four-year run as defensive coordinator.

Ryan is consistent: Using one of Football Outsiders' key metrics, Ryan's average defensive DVOA (explained here) over nine years is sixth. His average total defense is sixth. When your average is that high, you end up with this fact: Ryan has never had a below-average defense. His worst defensive DVOA was 14th. His worst YPG allowed is 17th. In nine years of controlling NFL defenses, only once was Ryan's unit even average. He's a defensive MacGyver -- give him an average D-line, a match and a roll of duct tape and he'll escape in good shape more often than not.

The only other NFL coach to run defenses as effectively as Ryan over the past nine years is Pittsburgh's Dick LeBeau. Ryan has been similarly dominant; it's his quarterbacks who have been the variable that ruins things. And it's the reason the 2014 Jets can challenge for first place in the AFC East, even against a healthy Patriots squad.

The value of average

Pittsburgh has had Ben Roethlisberger with LeBeau around, and that combination is why they have three Super Bowl appearances in that time, two of them wins. The narrative could say Big Ben has been great, but most know better. Pittsburgh's defenses have been great, Roethlisberger has been situationally great, and has mostly been pretty good overall.

Over the QBR era -- 2006 though 2013 -- among QBs with 1,500 attempts, Roethlisberger is 10th in QBR. No. 11 is Michael Vick. Now, Vick is no Big Ben, but much of that is health, and time away from football, not performance.

Now consider that over Ryan's Jets tenure, the team QBR -- combining the likes of Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Matt Simms, etc. -- is a terrifying 36.1, good for 29th in the NFL. Among teams that are in the bottom 10 in QBR over that period, the Jets are the only team with a winning record. At 42-38, the Jets are 16 wins better than Jacksonville, which has the next most awful QB performance in that time.

And it goes beyond that: Over the past nine years, only twice has Ryan had a QB who was at or above average in QBR:

In 2006, Steve McNair was sixth. The Ravens went 13-3.
In 2009, Sanchez was 17th (his highest finish). The Jets went 11-5.

The single greatest spikes in team improvement in recent years haven't come through brilliant quarterbacking, they've come through merely OK quarterbacking. A team with terrible QB play simply becomes average in that category. In 2011 the Colts minus Manning were a disaster at QB. In 2012, Andrew Luck wasn't brilliant, he was a tick north of league average as a rookie. The Colts had a nine-win jump. In 2012 the Chiefs were awful at QB and won two games. In 2013 they added Alex Smith, who wasn't remotely great, just competent, and they had a nine-win spike. Seattle's jump with the presence of Russell Wilson also qualifies.

It is impossible for the Jets to "spike" in wins, because as long as Ryan is coaching the defense, they'll never really be bad. Last season was proof enough, when they won eight games even as Geno Smith ranked an unpleasant 34th in QBR.

So what must happen now? And why the optimism?

Vick must be ... just average

The issue for Vick is always health. We know he's played 16 games just once. But as I noted recently, Vick is safely an above league-average QB, and he almost always improves the win rates of the teams he plays for:

"Vick's record as a starter is 58-48-1. Going into 2013 (excluding 2009 when Vick sat the bench behind Donovan McNabb in his first year back from a prison sentence), his team's record when he didn't start was 13-30. You can argue that with Vick around teams weren't invested financially in another really good QB in most of those seasons, but it's impossible to argue that Vick hasn't been a significant improvement for his team over any other QB on the roster."

I hardly qualify as a "QB win" pusher, but it is the game's most important position, and when the context is reasonable it matters. When he's on the field, since 2005, Vick hasn't been a star, but he's been something safely better than the Jets have had with a QBR profile similar to a Big Ben or Eli Manning. Those guys stay healthy, for the most part. But if Vick does, evidence shows anything even remotely average sets up Ryan's teams for success.

The weapons upgrade

Improved offensive talent should help. That's why the Jets can't sit still even with the addition of Eric Decker. While Decker brings impressive recent credentials -- he was fifth in the NFL in Pro Football Focus' WR rating in 2013 (which measures how good a QB looked when throwing at him) and second in 2012 -- but the control in that experiment was Peyton Manning, so we can't say for certain Decker is a massive upgrade over, say, the departed Santonio Holmes.

Now the draft must pay dividends. The Jets are in a great position to draft the likes of LSU's Odell Beckham Jr. or USC's Marqise Lee with their first pick at No. 18 overall, and they shouldn't stop there. This is one of the best drafts at the wide receiver position in recent memory, and an added pick there or at tight end would be wise. (This week Mel Kiper suggested the Jets add two pass-catchers with their first two picks.) The recent addition of Jacoby Ford is more window dressing than impact, though Ford's speed can be useful. But it's fair to say the Jets need early impact from the draft.

The good news is that's available. As for the running back depth chart, it isn't flush with promise right now (Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory represent the two-deep), but Chris Johnson would be a great change-of-pace solution to pursue following his release from the Titans, as he's the type of explosive runner they haven't had in a while. And the draft offers a lot of depth at the position in the middle and late rounds.

The defense just needs to remain strong

When I asked a few former NFL players who have played for or against Ryan's defenses this week what defines him, I heard a range of answers. Flexible, gets guys to buy in, does an exceptional job of creating in-game scheme counters, and in every case, game planning.

"He is a master game-planner," one said. "If he wants to take away the slot, then he does it. Same goes for a No.1 wide receiver, tight end -- you name it."

What the Jets are certain to take away is any attempt to run against them in 2014. Last season, they held teams to 3.35 yards per attempt, a league-low by a wide margin. And they'll only be better up front, with Muhammad Wilkerson entering Year 4, Damon Harrison and Quinton Coples entering their third NFL seasons, and run-stopping maestro Sheldon Richardson only in Year 2.

The secondary is a concern, but should see improved play from Dee Milliner (in part because he can't be worse than he was early in 2013, not a shock for a rookie) and while neither Dawan Landry nor Antonio Allen is great at safety, a year of playing together could help. But again, the 53.4 QBR the Jets allowed last season was actually the worst of Ryan's tenure, and was balanced by a devastating run defense, which is why the Jets still managed to rank 12th in defensive DVOA. Ryan's now extensive track record points to improvement, even for a defense that was safely above average and, in some areas, dominant.

Ultimately, the Vick health variable seems the likeliest to determine whether the Jets take a step forward, or are merely average. But with the control of Ryan around, that entity that really won't change or let the experiment go too far awry, the Jets really can win just a few more games, making them a true challenger in the AFC East.

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#2 User is offline   Jetsfan115 Icon

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 10:30 AM

this topic is about a week too late ;)
Get it done MT
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#3 User is offline   a1elbow2.0 Icon

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 11:14 AM

Didn't realise ESPN was still using that stupid TBR.

View PostClemens11, on 12 August 2012 - 01:21 PM, said:

1 int for every 4 tis is a pretty nice ratio to me


Bottomfeeder Tracker: 6-17 vs teams with a winning record.
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