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Jetsfan115 Icon : (28 April 2016 - 10:02 PM) Lawson is more of a de. We already have too many of those. We only have 1 proven LBer and he's 32 and we run a 3-4. Lee is a day 1 starter
Jetsfan115 Icon : (28 April 2016 - 10:03 PM) Broncos traded up for lynch
MikeGangGree... Icon : (28 April 2016 - 10:41 PM) Round 1 is done
2JBallar01 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 12:43 AM) He will play ILB for us.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 11:08 AM) http://nyjetsfan.com...showtopic=38865
Jetsfan115 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 11:19 AM) jets tried to trade up for tunsil but the price was too high
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 05:10 PM) Tunsil will end up out of the league
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 05:12 PM) Lee isn't a pass rusher, hes a fast athletic LB. Hes probably their future at ILB, someone who can cover in the middle
Jetsfan115 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 06:16 PM) jets said he's an ILB for us
Jetsfan115 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 06:17 PM) If we could grab jack he would be an OLB
Jetsfan115 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 06:17 PM) ttians have 3 picks in the next 13 picks
Jetsfan115 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 06:33 PM) jack to jax 36th overal
ganggreen2003 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 06:33 PM) Did you hear that the 1st round pick for the Browns RETIRED after getting drafted
SoReALSoJetS Icon : (29 April 2016 - 07:29 PM) Hi guys long time no talk hope everyone is well
Mr_Jet Icon : (29 April 2016 - 07:46 PM) SMH
ganggreen2003 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 07:46 PM) JETS drafted QB Hackenberg PSU
Mr_Jet Icon : (29 April 2016 - 07:47 PM) Should have picked Connor Cook.
MikeGangGree... Icon : (29 April 2016 - 07:56 PM) I guess we are giving up on petty
Jetsfan115 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 09:02 PM) Or giving up on geno
Jetsfan115 Icon : (29 April 2016 - 09:02 PM) I said the rumor was they liked him more then cook
Mr_Jet Icon : (29 April 2016 - 11:35 PM) I know I'm biased, but I've seen them both play. Cook is just better. Hackenberg had one good year. Cook has won more games, played in big games and won them....whatever, its done now so no sense on dwelling on it I guess. I just don't see the appeal in Hackenberg, nice kid, but I always thought he was really overrated. Oh well. I would have taken Kevin Hogan over Hackenberg.
azjetfan Icon : (30 April 2016 - 03:47 PM) From what I have read so far he had a great freshman year under Obrien in a pro style offense. At that point some considered him the next Andrew luck. Then Obrien left and they shifted to a spread under new HC who did poor job bringing in talent. He was also sacked and hit a million times. Might be shell shocked.
Smedsthejet Icon : (01 May 2016 - 06:17 AM) But Chan Gailey runs a spread system - still, I'm comfortable with the Hackenberg pick seeing as Gailey will develop the system to suit his strength... I'm just glad that we passed on Paxton Lynch in the first...we still desperately need Fitz to re-sign though
azjetfan Icon : (01 May 2016 - 07:14 PM) From my understanding the spread in college and the spread in NFL are not the same principals. I really think it was more of a talent issue and getting sacked 80 times in 2 years that did him in. I have no idea if he will make it. I don't follow college ball enough to to know. Theses are just things I read in articles.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (02 May 2016 - 10:24 AM) I'm stoked about getting peake in the 7th round. that was a steal. he was a projected 3rd rounder. wonder what scared teams away
Jetsfan115 Icon : (02 May 2016 - 06:05 PM) Jets Invite Terron Beckham(Odell's Cousin) to Minicamp
Jetsfan115 Icon : (02 May 2016 - 06:06 PM) Listed as a RB had more bench presses and highest vertical of anyone this year. Hasn't played football since high school and apparently not very smart
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (03 May 2016 - 05:16 PM) The Jets had Hackenberg as their #2 rated QB
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (03 May 2016 - 05:16 PM) Apparently, they loved Golf and tried to trade up. When that failed, their #2 QB was Hackenberg, they fell in love with his football IQ
Jetsfan0099 Icon : (03 May 2016 - 05:17 PM) It would be a mistake to start him right away, hes a guy who needs development. He has the talent, and apparently he has good leadership skills and football IQ. His mechanics are off though
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (10 May 2016 - 12:25 PM) Is this street thug Ryan Fitzpatrick ever gonna sign?
SecondHandJets Icon : (11 May 2016 - 02:03 PM) Hey guy
SecondHandJets Icon : (11 May 2016 - 02:03 PM) Is everyone excited for the Geno Smith Era?
SecondHandJets Icon : (11 May 2016 - 02:04 PM) Finally the kid can show us what he can do
SecondHandJets Icon : (11 May 2016 - 02:04 PM) I know Mr Jet is excited
SecondHandJets Icon : (11 May 2016 - 02:04 PM) I know Harlem is too
SecondHandJets Icon : (11 May 2016 - 02:04 PM) GO TEAM!
Jetsfan115 Icon : (18 May 2016 - 10:40 AM) from the looks of it, nobody is excited lol
santana Icon : (18 May 2016 - 10:27 PM) I'm excited for geno smith. His jaw will survive the off season.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (19 May 2016 - 06:26 PM) not true, never know who might punch him
MikeGangGree... Icon : (21 May 2016 - 05:38 PM) f*** Geno smith
MikeGangGree... Icon : (21 May 2016 - 05:39 PM) J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!
mgjetman Icon : (Yesterday, 02:01 PM) Geno really needs to go away. Double f**k Geno.
Jetsfan115 Icon : (Yesterday, 02:21 PM) Fitzpatrick said he wants to play for the jets and that he won't retire
HarlemHxC814 Icon : (Yesterday, 06:50 PM) This street thug Darron Lee hasn't signed yet
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Jets Can Contend For Afc East ESPN Insider

#1 User is offline   Chaos Icon

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 08:03 AM

Quote

Jets can contend for AFC East

Upgrade at QB, consistently strong defense can help Jets challenge Pats:

The NFL is middle school chemistry. You have variables and controls. The variables create different outcomes, while the control is that unchanging element, the thing you can point to and say, "Well, we know that didn't cause the fire." And in a league where constant turnover is law, few controls exist. Bill Belichick is a control. Peyton Manning is a control. The controls allows at least some level of certainty. It's something the New York Jets have lacked -- at least on the surface.

Consider the coach. Rex Ryan's persona seems to dovetail with the mixed outcomes -- near-Super Bowl seasons, the lows of last place -- and it's all tattooed across the back page. The overall mixed results, a 42-38 mark in New York, would imply Rex is a source of instability.

But when you dig deeper, you realize it's the opposite. Ryan is one of the NFL's true controls. What he does -- what he truly controls on a football field -- never really changes. Ryan controls defenses, and his defenses are routinely excellent. And this year, that could be enough for the Jets to legitimately challenge for the AFC East title.

Consider:

Ryan destroys passing games: It's a passing league, but not against Ryan. From 2009 to 2013, Jets defenses allowed the NFL's lowest QBR, at 40.6, with no real spike of a bad year. And it goes beyond that. Ryan's Baltimore defenses did the same, allowing an absurdly low 33.1 mark from 2006-2008. Over a nine-year period, Ryan's defense turns the average NFL QB into Chad Henne.

Ryan wrecks consistent yardage: With the Jets, his defenses are second in the NFL in yards allowed over his tenure. With Baltimore, he also was second during his four-year run as defensive coordinator.

Ryan is consistent: Using one of Football Outsiders' key metrics, Ryan's average defensive DVOA (explained here) over nine years is sixth. His average total defense is sixth. When your average is that high, you end up with this fact: Ryan has never had a below-average defense. His worst defensive DVOA was 14th. His worst YPG allowed is 17th. In nine years of controlling NFL defenses, only once was Ryan's unit even average. He's a defensive MacGyver -- give him an average D-line, a match and a roll of duct tape and he'll escape in good shape more often than not.

The only other NFL coach to run defenses as effectively as Ryan over the past nine years is Pittsburgh's Dick LeBeau. Ryan has been similarly dominant; it's his quarterbacks who have been the variable that ruins things. And it's the reason the 2014 Jets can challenge for first place in the AFC East, even against a healthy Patriots squad.

The value of average

Pittsburgh has had Ben Roethlisberger with LeBeau around, and that combination is why they have three Super Bowl appearances in that time, two of them wins. The narrative could say Big Ben has been great, but most know better. Pittsburgh's defenses have been great, Roethlisberger has been situationally great, and has mostly been pretty good overall.

Over the QBR era -- 2006 though 2013 -- among QBs with 1,500 attempts, Roethlisberger is 10th in QBR. No. 11 is Michael Vick. Now, Vick is no Big Ben, but much of that is health, and time away from football, not performance.

Now consider that over Ryan's Jets tenure, the team QBR -- combining the likes of Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Matt Simms, etc. -- is a terrifying 36.1, good for 29th in the NFL. Among teams that are in the bottom 10 in QBR over that period, the Jets are the only team with a winning record. At 42-38, the Jets are 16 wins better than Jacksonville, which has the next most awful QB performance in that time.

And it goes beyond that: Over the past nine years, only twice has Ryan had a QB who was at or above average in QBR:

In 2006, Steve McNair was sixth. The Ravens went 13-3.
In 2009, Sanchez was 17th (his highest finish). The Jets went 11-5.

The single greatest spikes in team improvement in recent years haven't come through brilliant quarterbacking, they've come through merely OK quarterbacking. A team with terrible QB play simply becomes average in that category. In 2011 the Colts minus Manning were a disaster at QB. In 2012, Andrew Luck wasn't brilliant, he was a tick north of league average as a rookie. The Colts had a nine-win jump. In 2012 the Chiefs were awful at QB and won two games. In 2013 they added Alex Smith, who wasn't remotely great, just competent, and they had a nine-win spike. Seattle's jump with the presence of Russell Wilson also qualifies.

It is impossible for the Jets to "spike" in wins, because as long as Ryan is coaching the defense, they'll never really be bad. Last season was proof enough, when they won eight games even as Geno Smith ranked an unpleasant 34th in QBR.

So what must happen now? And why the optimism?

Vick must be ... just average

The issue for Vick is always health. We know he's played 16 games just once. But as I noted recently, Vick is safely an above league-average QB, and he almost always improves the win rates of the teams he plays for:

"Vick's record as a starter is 58-48-1. Going into 2013 (excluding 2009 when Vick sat the bench behind Donovan McNabb in his first year back from a prison sentence), his team's record when he didn't start was 13-30. You can argue that with Vick around teams weren't invested financially in another really good QB in most of those seasons, but it's impossible to argue that Vick hasn't been a significant improvement for his team over any other QB on the roster."

I hardly qualify as a "QB win" pusher, but it is the game's most important position, and when the context is reasonable it matters. When he's on the field, since 2005, Vick hasn't been a star, but he's been something safely better than the Jets have had with a QBR profile similar to a Big Ben or Eli Manning. Those guys stay healthy, for the most part. But if Vick does, evidence shows anything even remotely average sets up Ryan's teams for success.

The weapons upgrade

Improved offensive talent should help. That's why the Jets can't sit still even with the addition of Eric Decker. While Decker brings impressive recent credentials -- he was fifth in the NFL in Pro Football Focus' WR rating in 2013 (which measures how good a QB looked when throwing at him) and second in 2012 -- but the control in that experiment was Peyton Manning, so we can't say for certain Decker is a massive upgrade over, say, the departed Santonio Holmes.

Now the draft must pay dividends. The Jets are in a great position to draft the likes of LSU's Odell Beckham Jr. or USC's Marqise Lee with their first pick at No. 18 overall, and they shouldn't stop there. This is one of the best drafts at the wide receiver position in recent memory, and an added pick there or at tight end would be wise. (This week Mel Kiper suggested the Jets add two pass-catchers with their first two picks.) The recent addition of Jacoby Ford is more window dressing than impact, though Ford's speed can be useful. But it's fair to say the Jets need early impact from the draft.

The good news is that's available. As for the running back depth chart, it isn't flush with promise right now (Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory represent the two-deep), but Chris Johnson would be a great change-of-pace solution to pursue following his release from the Titans, as he's the type of explosive runner they haven't had in a while. And the draft offers a lot of depth at the position in the middle and late rounds.

The defense just needs to remain strong

When I asked a few former NFL players who have played for or against Ryan's defenses this week what defines him, I heard a range of answers. Flexible, gets guys to buy in, does an exceptional job of creating in-game scheme counters, and in every case, game planning.

"He is a master game-planner," one said. "If he wants to take away the slot, then he does it. Same goes for a No.1 wide receiver, tight end -- you name it."

What the Jets are certain to take away is any attempt to run against them in 2014. Last season, they held teams to 3.35 yards per attempt, a league-low by a wide margin. And they'll only be better up front, with Muhammad Wilkerson entering Year 4, Damon Harrison and Quinton Coples entering their third NFL seasons, and run-stopping maestro Sheldon Richardson only in Year 2.

The secondary is a concern, but should see improved play from Dee Milliner (in part because he can't be worse than he was early in 2013, not a shock for a rookie) and while neither Dawan Landry nor Antonio Allen is great at safety, a year of playing together could help. But again, the 53.4 QBR the Jets allowed last season was actually the worst of Ryan's tenure, and was balanced by a devastating run defense, which is why the Jets still managed to rank 12th in defensive DVOA. Ryan's now extensive track record points to improvement, even for a defense that was safely above average and, in some areas, dominant.

Ultimately, the Vick health variable seems the likeliest to determine whether the Jets take a step forward, or are merely average. But with the control of Ryan around, that entity that really won't change or let the experiment go too far awry, the Jets really can win just a few more games, making them a true challenger in the AFC East.

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#2 User is offline   Jetsfan115 Icon

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 10:30 AM

this topic is about a week too late ;)
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#3 User is offline   a1elbow2.0 Icon

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 11:14 AM

Didn't realise ESPN was still using that stupid TBR.

View PostClemens11, on 12 August 2012 - 01:21 PM, said:

1 int for every 4 tis is a pretty nice ratio to me


Bottomfeeder Tracker: 6-17 vs teams with a winning record.
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